Donald Trump announces he has COVID-19

[notimp]

That's a good point. I guess we should just go on living like this forever then. I mean, if it saves one life, right? For the children.

Would be a fine argument, if you were dealing with a linear growth of infections in a 'act like normal' case, but you are not, you are dealing with a near (but never quite) exponential spread.

So once you take all that away - poof, spread like in italy (although, there mostly spread in old folks homes was the main issue), question - are your hospitals overwhelmed then, yes, no.

Also vaccine is coming (and could take about 2 years to reach required vaccination levels in populations, four years or more in developing countries).

All those discussions will be held after vaccines have become more or less widely available.

Because everything about structural policy making is about 'informed risk taking' - but 'hey lets try it with no fallback, and ignore the scenarios that happened in other countries around the world' is not informed risk taking..

 

[Doran754]

Yeah fair point, forgot about that.

 

[gregory-samba]

I should also point out that the "it's because of more testing" argument can never do anything to help an argument, even ignoring the above points, unless the argument is "we weren't testing enough before, and we are only now realizing that things are worse than we thought."

So, you don't like the "we're doing more testing so there's more positive results" argument. That's fine, I like it and it makes perfect sense to me. If you test half of the 330,000,000 residents in the USA you may only get 57,000,000 positive results, but if you test the entire 330,000,000 the results will go up. The more you test the more positive results you're going to see and the trend has been the more we test the more we find out more people had it then we thought so the death rate and serious sickness rate keep decreasing.

I also don't care for your 2.8% death rate, as that doesn't reflect what has been reported for months or even last week. It's more like 0.02%, but either way Trump has the odds in his favor for survival.

Ron DeSantis is your source? Well that explains the wonky fatality rate that's several times lower than most other estimates.

CDC: 0.65% IFR
https://reason.com/2020/09/29/the-l...ion-fatality-rate-vary-dramatically-with-age/

World Health Organization: 0.5% - 1.0% IFR
https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19

Columbia University: 1.46% IFR
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...an-many-believed-infection-fatality-rate-cvd/

US\World combined cases meta-analysis: 0.68% IFR
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v4

In addition, Covid-19 is also roughly twice as contagious as influenza (r0 value), which multiplies the number of cases and total deaths.

So your % is a maximum of 1.46% death rate from your examples. My example shows an overall rate of 1.5% and Lacius is stating 2.8%. Your examples are more current then what Lacuis is stating as it was up in the 3-2% a few months ago so his figures are outdated, but it's all a numbers game and the thing about all of these figures is that they are extremely low. I also wouldn't knock the chart that the Governor of Florida is holding up as it was sourced from official figures and not some made up political number it just so happens you don't like the messenger.

I also understand that it's more contagious than the flu, but the serious injury and death rates are so low it doesn't really make a difference. Most people that get it won't even know they had it let alone get ill or get close to having to go to a Hospital. That's why I'm not too concerned about Trump. Let's just hope I'm not wrong. It's sad to see people rooting for his death, but then I'm thankful we live in a country that allows us to criticize and wish authorities figures death as if we adopt socialism those are sorts of things you could be jailed or executed for.

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Being reckless has consequences. I think the lesson here is that having a big mouth can't beat scientific facts. Wear a mask people

Chances are you're going to get COVID regardless if you wear a mask or not. Heck, the odds are you've already had it and don't know you did.

 

[Hanafuda]

What's that have to do with my answer to your question? You asked me where all the influenza cases went. Social distancing is the answer. I never said that's the way I want to live -- far from it.

And I said, that's a good point. But it isn't provable. And it's also beside the point I was making before about the number of flu deaths annually vs. the big scary 200k being reported about Covid19. The magic fun term that makes the 200k number deserve an asterisk is "Covid-related". Some guy crashed on his motorcycle and died but he was Covid19 positive ... death was reported as Covid19 related. That's an outlier example of course, but "Covid-related" is a big umbrella. And there are political and federal funding interests driving it.

 

[gregory-samba]

I do wonder though, why we're comparing people who've had the flu to covid. I mean, how do we know how many people actually have the flu virus in them as you can get it and barely get sick or not get sick at all. So if millions of people have it and don't know wouldn't that effect the comparison to the Chinese Wuhan Cornonavirus?

 

[ChibiMofo]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/01/politics/hope-hicks-positive-coronavirus/index.html

So scary and disturbing. I am hoping he and Melanie pull through this

A million deaths in and you only find COVID-19 "scary and disturbing" when the bleach-injecting, non-mask wearing traitor who has downplayed the virus and tried to ridicule those trying to save lives finally gets it? What is wrong with you???!!! Virtually every other person to get it is worthy of your sympathy and best wishes.
NOT HIM!

 

[gregory-samba]

A million deaths in and you only find COVID-19 "scary and disturbing" when the bleach-injecting, non-mask wearing traitor who has downplayed the virus and tried to ridicule those trying to save lives finally gets it? What is wrong with you???!!! Virtually every other person to get it is worthy of your sympathy and best wishes.
NOT HIM!

Trump never said to drink bleach. That never came out of his mouth. You start off your insults with fabrications so that makes you look like a fool. I challenge you to go find a video of Trump saying to drink bleach and not a video of him saying there's UV disinfectants that you can take that will kill covid, as that's a cutting edge technology and does exist. That's the only video you'll find as he never said "drink bleach", that's simply what others inferred he said as they twisted what he was referring to. He was being sarcastic regarding the new injectable UV light treatments. Get a clue man before you run your mouth.

 

[Hanafuda]

Worth a read. It's not long.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-history/heroic-failures/pandemic-memories-and-mortalities

Interesting that, adjusting for population then vs. now, current mortality numbers from Covid19 would need to triple still just to tie up with the 1968-69 pandemic (which was still going on when the Woodstock Music Festival took place).

 

[gregory-samba]

Worth a read. It's not long.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-history/heroic-failures/pandemic-memories-and-mortalities

Interesting that, adjusting for population then vs. now, current mortality numbers from Covid19 would need to triple still just to tie up with the 1968-69 pandemic (which was still going on when the Woodstock Music Festival took place).

Our World history is full of worse pandemics and outbreaks yet we didn't shut down our entire country for them. I think shutting down was a mistake. In my state we've opened everything back up, but there's distancing and mask requirements, which I admit does help a little bit with preventing catching or spreading it, but the sickness and death rates are so low I'm not sure why people are still worried about the Chinese Wuhan Coronavirus. We shut down over something that's not that serious.

 

[omgcat]

You live in Italy mate, Italy. The EU isn't a country. And yes, he ran on a pledge to build a wall, so obviously he's spending tax payers money building that wall, LIKE HE SAID HE WOULD.

hell yeah, build the wall at the expense of our military. https://www.usatoday.com/story/opin...ecurity-families-foot-bill-column/2325586001/

really falls in line with his personal anti-military stance.

it honestly will be refreshing when we get a president back who ACTUALLY cares about our military and veterans.

 

[notimp]

Worth a read. It's not long.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-history/heroic-failures/pandemic-memories-and-mortalities

Interesting that, adjusting for population then vs. now, current mortality numbers from Covid19 would need to triple still just to tie up with the 1968-69 pandemic (which was still going on when the Woodstock Music Festival took place).

Those are estimates, not 'counted' current (edit: ok, by january) estimates for Covid 19 already are at 3x higher than reported.

Its so easy to farm likes from people that dont know what you are selling them..

edit: src: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02762-y

But to be fair, your original article also didnt take that into account, and was from a reputable source. So its 'up for debate'.

edit: 2x-3x reported is more likely (3x is the 'worst case scenario')

 

[Hanafuda]

Our World history is full of worse pandemics and outbreaks yet we didn't shut down our entire country for them.

I think that article makes a good point that media hype and social media have caused a completely different and disproportionate approach this time around. I think this has various effects, including that a lot of older people who have been through this kind of thing before bristle more against the restrictions, quarantines, etc than younger people who are always hopeful the world can be saved.

As far as politics plays a role in this, a short exchange during the debate the other night that I haven't seen anyone talking about struck me as being at the core of the ideological difference. Trump was saying something like, 'the American people want to go back to their jobs, want the stores open, want the schools open, want their lives to go back to normal.' And Biden's rebuttal to that was, 'the American people want safety!' I think they're both right, just talking about different American people.

 

[gregory-samba]

hell yeah, build the wall at the expense of our military. https://www.usatoday.com/story/opin...ecurity-families-foot-bill-column/2325586001/

really falls in line with his personal anti-military stance.

it honestly will be refreshing when we get a president back who ACTUALLY cares about our military and veterans.

At least Trump is trying to actually keep his campaign promises. Most politicians promise all sorts of shit then never follow through once elected.

I do wonder though about your last comment. What do you think about Trump donating 1/4th of his yearly Presidential salary to disabled veterans (See Q1, 2018)? You do know he gives his entire $400,000 a year away? I also guess his new polices for veterans flew under your radar too?

 

[SG854]

I've got to be honest : I'm more sorry for Melania and Hope Hicks (his assistent who also tested positive) than for Donald himself. For him, I just wish he gets sick enough to take the virus serious... But not more than that.

Nice one.
Oh, and as an encore: He's also a person of color.

Orange is a color

 

[Hanafuda]

Those are estimates, not 'counted' current (edit: ok, by january) estimates for Covid 19 already are at 3x higher than reported.

Its so easy to farm likes from people that dont know what you are selling them..

edit: src: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02762-y

But to be fair, your original article also didnt take that into account, and was from a reputable source. So its 'up for debate'.

edit: 2x-3x reported is more likely (3x is the 'worst case scenario')

If I wanted to 'farm likes' in this place I'd post leftist horseshit.

I post cranky old conservative horseshit.

 

[gregory-samba]

I think that article makes a good point that media hype and social media have caused a completely different and disproportionate approach this time around. I think this has various effects, including that a lot of older people who have been through this kind of thing before bristle more against the restrictions, quarantines, etc than younger people who are always hopeful the world can be saved.

As far as politics plays a role in this, a short exchange during the debate the other night that I haven't seen anyone talking about struck me as being at the core of the ideological difference. Trump was saying something like, 'the American people want to go back to their jobs, want the stores open, want the schools open, want their lives to go back to normal.' And Biden's rebuttal to that was, 'the American people want safety!' I think they're both right, just talking about different American people.

Fair enough. Safety though is usually an illusion. There's not much we can do to avoid catching the virus, unless we do a real total shutdown where no one can leave their residences for any reason and that includes everyone, including UPS drivers, doctors, the police, etc ... As long as one person from each residence could come in contact with another person in another residence then there's a chance it could spread. It's made me think we'd really be fucked if there was some really deadly bug going around. If this was a serious pandemic we'd be fucked responding to it via however the Right or Left wanted to.

 

[notimp]

If I wanted to 'farm likes' in this place I'd post leftist horseshit.

I post cranky old conservative horseshit.

In this forum its entirely useless to farm likes, I agree. But the people liking your post dont know, that you are using reported, vs estimated in your example. (Now reported is also more than 'tested' but below estimated.. )

Still, I havent seen that comparison, good find.

 

[Hanafuda]

In this forum its entirely useless to farm likes, I agree. But the people liking your post dont know, that you are using reported, vs estimated in your example. (Now reported is also more than 'tested' but below estimated.. )

I just thought it was a good read, something worth thinking about. It is true, regardless of 'reported, estimated, tested' that worse pandemics have occurred in the past, and society did not react this way.

As for these numbers vs. those numbers, as Mark Twain said there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

 

[gregory-samba]

In this forum its entirely useless to farm likes, I agree. But the people liking your post dont know, that you are using reported, vs estimated in your example. (Now reported is also more than 'tested' but below estimated.. )

Still, I havent seen that comparison, good find.

People that seek after pretend Internet points such as Likes need to reevaluate their life choices.

 

[rsx]

This just in: The Clorox Company has announced a 40% hike in their stock portfolio!