Some situation...
As with (by now) everyone, I've been watching the invasion unfold. The position of Russia quickly changed from "we need to protect Russian minded groups in Donetsk and Luhansk" to "these groupings should have sovereignty" to "we're going to stop Ukraine for resisting us".
It baffles me in so many ways. I never held Putin in any sort of high regard, but I really thought he was smarter than to downright invade a neighboring country without being provoked in any way. Of course nobody's going to stand for it. It was pretty much a given that no country would side with Russia (aside Belarus, but they're hardly more than a Russian province so they're pretty much insignificant), and that the Oriental side would remain neutral wasn't rocket science either.
So why do it? The situation in the Crimea was only different because it had a lot of Russian supporters on the peninsula (hard to portray yourself as the liberators when the majority doesn't want you in the first place). Donetsk and Luhansk had at best fringe groups allying themselves with Russia. In no way anything resembling a majority, and it was never an annexation either.
So...why? Putin's in power of Russia for years if not decades. NATO and the US never liked the autocracy it turned into after the USSR fell, but it's not their job to run the country (sovereignty, y'know?).
Sure, Ukraine wanted to become a member of NATO which brought the faultline (the proverbial iron curtain) closer to Russia...but NATO wasn't created to be anti-Russia. It's just that Russia's governing style is only not a dictatorship in name only ("you can vote for anyone you choose! No...Not that guy! We imprison him and don't even try to find a non-absurd excuse").
So in that way, Putin's hand might be triggered...but this doesn't strike me as an impulse move at all. Putin might be surrounded by yes-men (unlike Trump, who was surrounded by people who didn't want useless conflicts), but there had to be a plan for this. I don't see Putin gambling that NATO was just going to shrug and let those cities and then Kiev taken because of some propaganda ("oh, so Ukraine is just going to pester some fringe groups in their Eastern region at the exact same time 100'000 alligning Russian soldiers are innocently doing military excercises accidentally directly next to the Ukraine border? Thanks for informing us, Russian-controlled state media
").
He must've known. Perhaps underestimated the severity, but...*ugh*...I don't like to say it, but the rightwing nutjobs in this thread are right that our governments don't do enough. I disagree with some on whether or not that's a good thing, but our response was too slow, not enough and...certainly initially: kind of lame, really.
Belgium's now sending weapons and "is about to" send some troops.
Some troops.
It's better than nothing, I guess, but meanwhile they can get in line behind the many volunteers who went there sending food, clothing or simply transport for the many refugees fleeing Ukraine. I'm in favor of hitting the financial system and oligarchs close to Putin...but that's the sort of news I kind of expect as a backup from the clear and unwavering support we should be given Ukraine the moment the actual invasion began. Not multiple days later.
And with an actual war on our hands, the battle for truth becomes actually important. Remember that "Russia interfered in the 2016 US election" thingy? That's probably regarded as a main rehersal or something in Russian intelligence agencies, whereas the main attraction is trying to sway public opinion away from, or somehow legitimize, their attack.
I don't think they can. From my understanding, the average Russian is very much opposed to this move as well, which means that this isn't so much an attack by Russia as it is by Putin.
I'm not viewing the world through action-movie glasses, but perhaps things really shouldn't be more complicated than it should be. Hurt Russia financially by cutting off any sort of supplies (no, not just for some 1% oligarchs: shut down swift for all the banks operating in the territory). Cut off all transport of goods from and to the place.
Yes, it'll hurt us (I'm not as convinced that my heating isn't at least partially Russian, so it might get cold here). But we've got more allies. we'll win.
No single dictator can just tell the rest of the world what to do.
Last I've read there's some implications of invoking the nuclear arsenal if the West keeps supporting Ukraine. For that, I just repeat myself:
No single dictator can just tell the rest of the world what to do...
Fuckwad.
