Too harsh. (I know, coming from me..
)
Also names would help.
First up people didnt like Hillary interestingly enough for being career oriented early on (when she was still a 'governors wife'), this - over time lead to at least a partial cynicism towards populist public values on her part, which still kind of projects and in addition to that many people still remembered her in the old image. That was an issue for her campaign early on - and never quite went away. (People didn't perceive her as personable - the end.) You can watch the Hulu documentary and you get that.
Impeachment was risky, internally it was a struggle between the main wings of the democratic party. Oddly enough it seems to have helped internationally. Perception of the US as a hole changed at least a significant bit (in western europe at least). Could have lead to something, but always was unlikely to.
Also it was ended by the republicans early enough that it seems unlikely that they would make it a topic of debate during the election campaign).
Screeching in the primaries likely also will be forgotten, come campaign time - in the end most pundits were generally surprised how well the 'unifying' play went. That was most what was talked about in the end. (This forum is not representative.
)
You go with Biden, because he hits the demographics that you need well. (Elderly voters, racial minorities. Women as a vice presidential candidate ('progressive'?).) And you bet your house on him not flabbing (which still can be accomplished (media training
) ) in a very favorable election climate. (Corona crisis hasnt raised the presidents approval ratings like expected (wonder why..
)).
Targeted voter profiles are only for mobilization of certain demographics (and mostly for them not to leave the house to vote, because its easier than changing their opinion). This is almost independant of candidate, because you can custom craft the messaging.
The groping scandal shouldnt be much of a problem with the older demographic, and in the end never was with President Clinton either - politically thats a tiny thing that surfaced past background checks, repubicans cant profit too much on it either (with a candidate like that). Also shouldnt be a predictor for his future behavior, and even if - you can manage that.
Second term - one step after the other.
Candidates that poll well, dont grow on trees.
Did I forget something?
Most of the impressions you mentioned shouldnt matter come campaign start. Other things we currently dont know of will. Oh, and the presidents handling of the crisis, of course.
Thats how I see it.
Some of the things that are currently being talked about at as new potential deciding factors: Lower voter participation due to the epidemic. Public formats being different due to a lack of audiences (*meh*), economy (of course).
Edit: Oh, and Trump literally saying every possible thing. (Changing 'what should be done' in the crisis very, very frequently - so in the end you have soundbites for everything.) (Latest quote: 'The president should have all the authority' followed by 'the governors have the authority to end or prolong measures' the next day (that was caused by states forming alliances within themselves.))
Also still getting over my 'mental breakdown' so what do I know...
Its speculative anyhow. Take it with a grain of salt.