Did piracy affect 3DS game sales? Pokemon X/Y vs S/M sales

Chary

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With the newly updated LTD sales for the 3DS out, I was curious. There are many studies on piracy and its effects on the industry. There's also many debates of its effectiveness or if it's detrimental or helpful or doesn't change anything. With these new numbers, though, we can see that Pokemon X/Y and Pokemon Sun/Moon both sold nearly the same amount.

We can also come to the conclusion that X/Y really released before the 3DS was as widely cracked open as it is now. Sun and Moon came after CFWs and Flashcarts and a wide array of people knowing how to acquire CIAs. Yet, they sold around the same amount. Therefore you can potentially think, hey, piracy hardly changed a thing, since the sold the same.

However...we also know that the 3DS sold drastically more units within the time between these two releases. So with more 3DS owners out there, and about the same amount sold as X/Y, that doesn't look as good.

Of course, there are many other factors and manners that also impact sales and such. I'm curious to know what everyone else thinks.
 
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CallmeBerto

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They don't; at least not to as large as a degree as the industry would have you believe.

How many people actually hack their consoles? While I may not have data in front of me I would say it is a VERY VERY small percentage of users. Now how many of those users pirate games? 60%, 20% 90% of that small number?

There are other factors at play such as not every 3ds console being sold is a new user. (how many people own like 4 3ds at this point? Hell I own 6)

Also X and Y were kinda meh. How many people who played those games just didn't care for it and didn't pick up the newer ones?


Make games people want and market it well and people will buy it. Crazy I know.
 
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It's interesting and potentially disturbing all at the same time. I think we'd need similar apples to apples sales data for other games/franchises to more accurately say it was piracy that caused that, but really, that's a pretty damning number. You gotta keep in mind that not only did 3DS sales numbers skyrocket during the time between Pokemon X and Y, but Pokemon Go also came out the previous summer, and that must've definitely had an effect on Pokemon game and 3DS system sales.

However, perhaps another theory is that the 3DS game library matured and there was more to play, and so less people bought Sun and Moon? Let's look at the Switch. At launch and for a while after, sales of Breath of the Wild surpassed the amount of Switch systems even sold, but if you look at sales data now, Super Mario Odyssey and Mario Kart both outpaced Zelda, despite releasing later. I think it's rather obvious that Zelda was the system's crown jewel at launch, and a game that every Switch owner basically had to have. Later, when the system started getting a more diverse library of games, it seems that choice knocked down Breath of the Wild sales. Heck, it was even beat by the Wii U port of Mario Kart 8. Considering this, it's possible that Pokemon X and Y had a larger attach rate, so a higher percentage of 3DS owners bought into it. Then later, with more games to choose from, 3DS owners simply spent their money elsewhere and Pokemon sales stagnated.

At any rate, It's hard to tell anything from just one piece of data. This is just my speculations.
 

MasterJ360

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Sun/Moon just wasn't a good gen tbh. I wouldn't be surprised if ultra sun/moon sold less than both of the previous games. On top of that X & Y was very competitive before the hacks and pokebank came in
 
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CallmeBerto

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It's interesting and potentially disturbing all at the same time. I think we'd need similar apples to apples sales data for other games/franchises to more accurately say it was piracy that caused that, but really, that's a pretty damning number. You gotta keep in mind that not only did 3DS sales numbers skyrocket during the time between Pokemon X and Y, but Pokemon Go also came out the previous summer, and that must've definitely had an effect on Pokemon game and 3DS system sales.

These are very good points. I hope Chary updates the topic with these numbers.
 
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It's interesting and potentially disturbing all at the same time. I think we'd need similar apples to apples sales data for other games/franchises to more accurately say it was piracy that caused that, but really, that's a pretty damning number. You gotta keep in mind that not only did 3DS sales numbers skyrocket during the time between Pokemon X and Y, but Pokemon Go also came out the previous summer, and that must've definitely had an effect on Pokemon game and 3DS system sales.

However, perhaps another theory is that the 3DS game library matured and there was more to play, and so less people bought Sun and Moon? Let's look at the Switch. At launch and for a while after, sales of Breath of the Wild surpassed the amount of Switch systems even sold, but if you look at sales data now, Super Mario Odyssey and Mario Kart both outpaced Zelda, despite releasing later. I think it's rather obvious that Zelda was the system's crown jewel at launch, and a game that every Switch owner basically had to have. Later, when the system started getting a more diverse library of games, it seems that choice knocked down Breath of the Wild sales. Heck, it was even beat by the Wii U port of Mario Kart 8. Considering this, it's possible that Pokemon X and Y had a larger attach rate, so a higher percentage of 3DS owners bought into it. Then later, with more games to choose from, 3DS owners simply spent their money elsewhere and Pokemon sales stagnated.

At any rate, It's hard to tell anything from just one piece of data. This is just my speculations.
Besides, despite positive reviews from critics, I couldn't help but notice the widespread complaints that came with the game, with people saying that the game had become too "hand-holdy" and didn't allow for enough freedom in-game. Granted, many of these arguments could also apply to X and Y, but not quite to the same extent (though they are close).

Plus, Pokemon Go was big around the time Sun and Moon came out, so perhaps all the nostalgia-ridden young adults decided to aim for that game instead, as opposed to buying a 3DS to play the newest installments in the mainline series featuring Pokemon they probably didn't grow up with.
 

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mituzora

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It's interesting and potentially disturbing all at the same time. I think we'd need similar apples to apples sales data for other games/franchises to more accurately say it was piracy that caused that, but really, that's a pretty damning number. You gotta keep in mind that not only did 3DS sales numbers skyrocket during the time between Pokemon X and Y, but Pokemon Go also came out the previous summer, and that must've definitely had an effect on Pokemon game and 3DS system sales.

However, perhaps another theory is that the 3DS game library matured and there was more to play, and so less people bought Sun and Moon? Let's look at the Switch. At launch and for a while after, sales of Breath of the Wild surpassed the amount of Switch systems even sold, but if you look at sales data now, Super Mario Odyssey and Mario Kart both outpaced Zelda, despite releasing later. I think it's rather obvious that Zelda was the system's crown jewel at launch, and a game that every Switch owner basically had to have. Later, when the system started getting a more diverse library of games, it seems that choice knocked down Breath of the Wild sales. Heck, it was even beat by the Wii U port of Mario Kart 8. Considering this, it's possible that Pokemon X and Y had a larger attach rate, so a higher percentage of 3DS owners bought into it. Then later, with more games to choose from, 3DS owners simply spent their money elsewhere and Pokemon sales stagnated.

At any rate, It's hard to tell anything from just one piece of data. This is just my speculations.

Besides, despite positive reviews from critics, I couldn't help but notice the widespread complaints that came with the game, with people saying that the game had become too "hand-holdy" and didn't allow for enough freedom in-game. Granted, many of these arguments could also apply to X and Y, but not quite to the same extent (though they are close).

Plus, Pokemon Go was big around the time Sun and Moon came out, so perhaps all the nostalgia-ridden young adults decided to aim for that game instead, as opposed to buying a 3DS to play the newest installments in the mainline series featuring Pokemon they probably didn't grow up with.

Not to mention that X and Y had something that previous gen pokemon didn't; full-scale 3d graphics throughout. the battles were beautiful, and it was ultimately incredibly eye-catching.

Also not to mention it was the first main pokemon title to come out to the console. I bet that hyped X and Y beyond imagination. I'd like to see if there was a similar trend between the 4th and 5th gen pokemon games.
 
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Chary

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Not to mention that X and Y had something that previous gen pokemon didn't; full-scale 3d graphics throughout. the battles were beautiful, and it was ultimately incredibly eye-catching.

Also not to mention it was the first main pokemon title to come out to the console. I bet that hyped X and Y beyond imagination. I'd like to see if there was a similar trend between the 4th and 5th gen pokemon games.
Diamond/Pearl - 17.6 mil

BW: 15.6 mil

HGSS 13 mil
 

CallmeBerto

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So first I looked at the best selling game on the 3ds which was Mario Kart 7 at 17.21 million. Next comes all the pokemon games with Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire at the lowest of 14 mill.

Now Mario Kart came out in 2011 while Pokemon Sun/Moon came out in 2016 and yet still only sold a bit over a mill less.

Chary also posted other pokemon sale figures and they are around the same ballpark as these sales.

Basically everyone who wanted to play pokemon...got pokemon and the 3ds hardware sales were more for other games.
 

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I would think people who were going to buy Sun/Moon also bought X/Y, even if it was years after XY released. Just because people bought a 3DS later doesn't mean they couldn't go back and get X/Y. Also consider US/UM. ALL of my friends bought US/UM but not S/M, for one reason or another.

Not to mention S/M was pretty different from X/Y and might not have appealed to the exact same people.
 
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mituzora

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Diamond/Pearl - 17.6 mil

BW: 15.6 mil

HGSS 13 mil

So first I looked at the best selling game on the 3ds which was Mario Kart 7 at 17.21 million. Next comes all the pokemon games with Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire at the lowest of 14 mill.

Now Mario Kart came out in 2011 while Pokemon Sun/Moon came out in 2016 and yet still only sold a bit over a mill less.

Chary also posted other pokemon sale figures and they are around the same ballpark as these sales.

Basically everyone who wanted to play pokemon...got pokemon and the 3ds hardware sales were more for other games.

ORAS did dip, 14 mil

See, this info definitely strengthens the argument that piracy does not kill sales. the DS had rampant piracy pretty much since the beginning, and the 3DS didn't start gaining much traction until after X and Y was out. yet they both have incredibly similar trends for both platforms.

I stand by my view; A pirated copy isn't a lost sale. That pirate was not going to buy the game anyway.
 

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The thing that is never studied is, obviously enough, pirate behavior. Marketeers just point to the number of downloads and just calculate themselves rich, most likely because it excuses any mistakes they would ever make in predicting sales. If, for example, a game would sell at hundred bucks instead of fifty, sales go down but pretty remains the same (or even raises). Marketeers would just claim they would've gotten the sales "if it wasn't for piracy".

What is usually overlooked is that the cost to obtain something creates value. Let's say you get two games: one you buy for fifty bucks, the other one you download illegally (that's also priced fifty bucks). Which one are you going to play? If those things we investigated, I'm sure that most would play the bought game, interestingly enough even if it's of less quality.

Another thing i want investigating is magpie behavior. One of the more stand complaints on the wiiu forums was that the was this 200+ limit on downloaded games. And take it from someone who maintained the'essential games' list for that console: there werent that many good games on the system. Some percentage (i don't know how many) just downloaded everything and the kitchen sink. As just said: they did it because they could, not because they really wanted the games. As such, the amount of actually lost sales in piracy isn't that high.

Can't say much on Pokemon, I'm afraid. It's interesting to see the numbers, but while a strong argument to the case, i'm not sure if it's THAT easy. But i don't know the franchise enough to say anything about it.
 

Hells Malice

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Even if every single person who could pirate the game did instead of buying it, you likely wouldn't see a very large difference in potential sales. Piracy will always be a strong minority just because it tends to be for the more hardcore gamers, whereas a majority of gamers are pretty casual. Especially when it comes to Nintendo games.
 

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