Lots of interesting replies. Sorry that I don't mingle much in the topic, but as I stated in the OP: I'm not knowledgeable enough on the field to know the outcome, let alone argue why that outcome would be the most likely (that hasn't changed much in half a year
).
(directed at said OP)
Ehm, I think you've got that reversed.
US is imposing trade barriers on other countries, to slow down their economic growth. In the simplest most abstract explanation. To stop them growing, while the US is not so much, so the USD remains strong and will buy you more.
China cant do much, because they have engineered themselves a fast growing economy. If that stops too abruptly - they'll have themselves a few revolutions on hand. So what they gonna do? Stop manufacturing iPhones? It will hurt them more.
The whole point of beginning a trade ('tarrifs') war is, when you know that you will win it. And when you don't want to produce 'win/win' outcomes (where for example china currently wins a little more), which is what free trade produces.
China now can retaliate, but what they gonna do? Not buy soy from american farmers? The us can take that...
Escalating that thing currently isn't on anyones to do list (except for the US), because the US beats any other big economy in terms of being 'self sufficient' / not heavily dependent on one single other countries economy.
Outcome for a US citizen: Some chinese goods will become more expensive, because the business usually hand on their trade expenses down to the customer. Which in return will incentivize producing some goods locally again (automation, not a big jobs winner), or more likely find different ways of sourcing them.
The US is literally slowing down chinas growth and china has not very much they can do (they have hundreds of billions initiatives to open up new trade routes and markets to europe and eastern europe (reducing transport cost)) but they arent finished yet.
Militarily they can't do much either. They can publically complain - which they do. Then we can point at Hong Kong, which we do. Thats all.
Stop the panic. If its a war - the US certainly isnt loosing it.
Interesting view. I indeed thought it was aimed to protect the own market (or own goods...see also the mention on EU's tariffs on bikes). Tariffs with the main aim to hurt other countries (rather than a side effect) is a different perspective, but could be as good a reason, I guess.
The whole point of beginning a trade ('tarrifs') war is, when you know that you will win it. And when you don't want to produce 'win/win' outcomes (where for example china currently wins a little more), which is what free trade produces.
Of course Trump wouldn't begun this debacle if he didn't (then) expected to win it. But how exactly is "winning" defined? From what I've read, the international community criticized China for not upholding some standards (IP protection law is one that comes to mind). It would be understandable and even agreeable that this whole thing got started to get them in line with the rest of the world. But rather than set out with clear goals, Trump just proclaimed "it's unfair" over and over, leaving the rest of the world to fill in the blanks. The result is that the EU doesn't ally with the US on this ("how do we know that this guy has the same end goal in mind as we have?"), and that China is hindered by Trump's impulsiveness ("what's the point of signing an agreement with him if he can just break his own agreement the very next day?").
China now can retaliate, but what they gonna do? Not buy soy from american farmers? The us can take that...
China mirroring US good tariffs to the point that there's hardly a profit to be made is an obvious step, but hardly an unexpected one. As mentioned: the US buys much more, so tariffs hit them much more. China devaluating their currency is something I didn't expect, but that's why economists exist to point this out. I mean: a weaker currency apparently means that the extra import costs in the US are mostly/entirely negated. Can't say what effect it has on the ones actually USING said currency, so it can certainly be a step toward an internal revolution.
The real danger for the US, I would say, is in the international debt. China basically owns the US on this field. If they start selling this - and they have since this thing begun - then I've read that would undermine the dollar's position on the international market.
...but I admit that this has slided out of view of news reports. So either this was debunked, the effect wasn't that great or it was never an issue in the first place.
Stop the panic. If its a war - the US certainly isnt loosing it.
Again: at this point there's little evidence that it isn't a trade war. The only difference between now and a year ago is that the global economic prospects aren't as great as they were (back then even democrats had to begrudgingly admit that economy was - indeed - booming(1). Right now Trump is the only one shouting that the economy is still great).
(1): a probably important note: the economy is measured in factors that are said to be increasing a country's worth, while ignoring others (like income inequality). That's why people like Bernie Sanders criticize the economy despite it being seemingly great in accepted terms
