So americas politics are fixed by letting candidates drop out at specific spots?

[notimp]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeight-2020-primary-model-works/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
(select "a plurality of pledged candidates from the dropdown")

What kind of makes this apparent this time around is, that Biden got almost exclusively bad PR, before two of the more mainstream candidates dropped out, endorsing him, before arguably the biggest 'direction giving push' event of the primary elections.

Huh...

I'll watch this in following years with interest.

Also Buttigieg has been hyped by establishment media after Iowa for this?

Also notice, how much of the medias time is preoccupied with talking about Bloomberg vs. his projected chances of actually attaining a majority of candidates, in the weeks to come (percentage has recently fallen).

edit: Oh, you also need this graph to understand what I am talking about:

 

[notimp]

Proposal for non croney politics in the future, have them force drop out at specific spots depending on any metric really, as to not influence ongoing procedures.

Or hold all the preelections on the same day.

Haha. As if.

As a non US citizen of course I am non partisan.




edit: And here are just national poll averages on the same day:

src: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

So you can see the impact of the electoral delegates system that produces outcomes like this:

(Delegate distribution in California (32% of votes counted), "Delegierte == Delegates":

== winner takes all)

Oldest democracy in the world..

 

[FGFlann]

As a non US citizen of course I am non partisan.

I've met so many Europeans with TDS it makes my head spin.

We all knew this was coming. They will try to keep Bernie out any way they can. He may be the biggest threat to Trump but he's also the biggest threat to their perceived establishment. To them it's better to put forward a man on the cusp of dementia than have the party fall in behind Bernie, because they might learn to like him or something equally horrific.

 

[notimp]

I'll still have to do a demographic average of Iowa vs. the Super tuesday states. (Because that also could be a major factor. ) give me 30 minutes..

But in general - just reading what went into the projection, and then seeing that sort of spikes in opposing directions, while national poles still are 'roughly' the same.. Kind of a head scratcher, when the public discussion was largely unaltered, bar the the dropouts/endorsements.

edit:

"White man factor" should have moved the needle by 15%points max.

So what happened between Iowa and now?

Irrationality of 'who won previously' (and only won, not by how much) grew in the public perception, as a deciding factor for their own voting decision. America had its discussion over what democratic socialism was? But that didn't impact national polls? Apart from that... THE two other moderate candidates resigned at the most opportune time for Biden. And the electoral delegate system HEAVILY favors the winner in a state (winner takes all), for the weighted average that matters in the end (delegate votes).

Great.

 

[WD_GASTER2]

I am pretty sure that if things go at the rate they are going, Trump will win re-election.

 

[notimp]

I am pretty sure that if things go at the rate they are going, Trump will win re-election.

Too early to tell.

 

[zfreeman]

https://electionbettingodds.com/

 

[notimp]

In case you didn't already know, old people love the Biden.

src: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday/

https://electionbettingodds.com/

You get 6% interest for betting Trump wins the republican primaries? Republicans really must not like him... (Thats the chance, that they will produce ANY unknown candidate between now and election date, thats then 6% viable to win.. )

 

[Deleted User]

Americas - The Continent
America - The Country

An apostrophe makes a huge difference.

 

[Taleweaver]

So americas politics are fixed by letting candidates drop out at specific spots?

While the timing is indeed a bit strange (why did Klobuchar and Buttigieg drop out just before this day? ), I simply don't believe it. I mean: what's the bloody point? It ain't cheap to run for president, and the debates are...erm..."not too friendly". And for what I honestly think is a zero sum game: those rooting for either would've rooted for Biden anyway, just like Warren fans will get behind Sanders. That isn't because either do this "endorsing" thing, but because their political ideas mostly overlap (meaning: suppose Warren fully endorses Biden...then the votes would STILL go to Bernie).

I've met so many Europeans with TDS it makes my spin.

If notimp's flag is correct, he's from Southeast Asia. But ey...Trump is so good at pissing off foreigners that "TDS" is actually a word (I had to look it up...it's "Trump Derangement Syndrome", right? ).
Still: you shouldn't be surprised it comes up when you bring it up in a thread dealing exclusively about democratic candidates

 

[FGFlann]

I said Europeans because they are the bulk of the non-US citizens I meet. I couldn't make a general statement about people from Laos. The larger point was that non-US citizens aren't exactly reliably non-partisan in US politics.

 

[notimp]

I have thought about how to break this down into a one statement sentence.

If you ever want to know who decides on your presidential candidates, it should always be 'easily influenced, white, old guys/and gals'.

Unless you have an issue so divisive, that it could split that interest group cleanly in half.

The issue with candidate dropouts is, that if you are a rich oligarch, you could basically sponsor the likes of Klobuchar and Buttigieg (likeable centrist candidates, that are likable for different reasons), and then pull their support right before the most important voting date for the primaries - have them endorse the only remaining viable centrist candidate - and therefore get three voter profile demographics at just the opportune moment.

Then you correlate this with the 'the winner takes all' nature of how the election delegates system works, and that the majority of voters will be influenced by these events and the preliminary electoral delegates count at this exact point - and you basically come out at 'primaries can be bought'. At least, when looking at these elections. (Have to look at more of them to see if thats a general trend. But those kinds of winner projections based on general trends and demographics are new, so historically - I cant (easily).)

All of that is easily prevented, by f.e. demanding that candidates drop out without endorsing other candidates, or have to stay in the race until the end (even without spending more money), or by holding the pre elections on the same date. But no one seemingly has interest in preventing those sorts of influencing effects.

 

[Deleted User]

I said Europeans because they are the bulk of the non-US citizens I meet. I couldn't make a general statement about people from Laos. The larger point was that non-US citizens aren't exactly reliably non-partisan in US politics.

The so-called "whites" in U.S. are Europeans.

 

[FGFlann]

The so-called "whites" in U.S. are Europeans.

Let's not go wildly off-base here into weird racial territory. Americans are American, they ceased to be ethnically European a long time ago.

 

[UltraDolphinRevolution]

European Americans (see African Americans).

 

[Deleted User]

Let's not go wildly off-base here into weird racial territory. Americans are American, they ceased to be ethnically European a long time ago.

Not really. They are Europeans, just like Africans continue to be Africans and Asians as Asians. Calling people by 'white" or "black" is rather redundant.

I'm guessing you think these actresses aren't "white". Which makes the whole "white" as a race invalid, as it is, Europeans have different shades of skin color than just one.

Spoiler

If someone wanted to become a legal American, Brazilian, Mexican, Australian citizen then he/she could, but their race remains the same as it's in their ancestry.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------

European Americans (see African Americans).

Exactly. Europeans immigrated to U.S., which makes them settlers (as they were).

 

[FGFlann]

You are both fundamentally misunderstanding the problem. The question is not of their racial makeup but of their social, political and cultural makeup. What is culturally American is no longer "European", it is American and has been for a long time.

 

[notimp]

Here you can see what happened more clearly, because Reuters still has Klobuchar and Buttigieg numbers in there.

src: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e..._democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

So all Klobuchar and Buttigieg voters, and I mean all of them, moved over to Biden at exactly the most damaging time possible for the Sanders campaign.

Fun.

Also difference in the popular poll average is 0.6% (poll on the site I linked in the thread before must still have not had current exit numbers?), which is still within statistical error.

But Biden now has 4% (points) more delegates, and the bump he needed.

And look at those curves... wow. Exactly at the right time - and without any pro Biden publicity push that came from his own campaign. (If you find any of that stuff, please post (general media, not social pls. ).)

edit: Actually, let me take that bak, I'd also be interested in the facebook ads for that timeframe.

 

[notimp]

Lets crawl facebooks ad transparency tool:

Biden campaign:
https://www.facebook.com/ads/librar...search_field=has_impressions_lifetime&q=Biden

*chirp chirp* *echo in the woods* *bush rolling through the image*

Nothing.

Must have been superpacks then.. (Or facebook sucking at surfacing political advertising.. )

Buttigieg:
https://www.facebook.com/ads/librar...ch_field=has_impressions_lifetime&q=Buttigieg

Nothing (one facebook posting on him endorsing Biden, switch to "active and inactive")

Klobuchar:
https://www.facebook.com/ads/librar...ch_field=has_impressions_lifetime&q=Klobuchar

Nothing at all.

Boy, facebooks campaign transparency tools suck.

13 Million people in the US apparently change their voting behavior in an erratic fashion, and facebooks ad monitoring doesnt seem to be able to catch it.

*shakes fist* "Zucktheberg!"
--

edit: Also interesting:

Popular vote numbers for both Buttigieg and Klobuchar kind of spiked, before they handed over their voters to Biden. (Thats called momentum. )

Fun.

 

[notimp]

Oh, there is another problematic thing.

All candidates are fighting over a majority of electoral candidates - but they only get them, if they are above a 15% threshold in any state.

So even when Bloomberg or Warren will drop out, that will have an amplifying effect. With an emphasis on when.

And that two centrist candidates (around that 15% threshold) dropped out earlier on, has an amplifying effect on Biden - throughout the entire race. (Trying to obtain delegate votes.)

This is because those candidates that dropped out cant 'steal away' voters from the general pool. That wouldnt count in the end result.

So this is basically a game of monopoly, where mid game - at any point, any player can stand up, give all their monopoly money to any other player, and then get real money for that instead. If they give them to the right person.

As I understand it.

edit: And where at any time, you can tip any candidate from the outside to not quit and split the voter base of another candidate, permanently.

And in the end you can vote "(often moderate) change" or "four more years".

Woo! Democracy!