A CNN poll earlier in July showed him at 13%, but it's always a mistake to focus on just one poll. Focusing on only one poll can allow someone see anything he or she wants to see. As someone here once put it:
Unless your methodology involves magical fairy dust and unicorns, a group of 1000 individuals is not representative of 318 million. It just isn't, I'm sorry. I treat polls as jerk-off material for people with confirmation bias, I'm only interested in the real deal now.
I agree with
@Foxi4 at least that focusing on just one poll and ignoring the others is to engage in confirmation bias. To get an accurate reading of the state of the election, one needs to focus on the aggregate number. The criteria to get into the debates is also dependent on an aggregate of five specific polls, not single polls.
I should also note that if one is going to make the mistake of focusing on a single poll, then in order to be consistent, one should focus on any polling that comes out from that same polling group with the same methodology. A CNN poll from two weeks later showed Johnson's support had dropped to 9%.
If one looks at the aggregate polling, it showed Johnson with about 7.8% at the beginning of June, 9.8% in the middle of July, and about 7.5% now. Like it or not, it doesn't look like he's going anywhere. Hold-outs from either major party are slowly coming around to either Clinton or Trump. I would like to see him in the debates though.
Edit: Not to beat a dead horse, but if one looks at the methodology of the CNN polls, they make some notable mistakes. The sample size is slightly smaller than average (872-894 people), and it polls registered voters instead of likely voters. Again, that's why aggregates are so important in order to minimize the effects of these kinds of variables.
Thoses numbers are pretty low since he has gotten from 8% to 13% depending on the method and polling group.
Don't make the mistake of ignoring the quantity and quality of polls that put Johnson at 5-6%. That's why aggregates are so important.
He has (according to one estimate) 1/3 chance of getting the 15% of the polls for the debates. I like those odds as it is possible.
That might be about right. I don't know how that would be calculated.
There is still alot of time until then. What if Wikileaks comes out with news that causes more distrust of the dnc? Or if Romney or the Bush family endorse him? There are alot of things that could happen until then which can help him.
Either way I think we have a decent chance of making it and if we do then I feel it will be a much better debate for the American people. If not maybe one of the candidates will debate him 1 on 1 like Reagan did Anderson? Ultimately I like Johnson and am proud to support him.
There is a lot of time between now and the debates. Anything could happen.