Far Right Presidential Candidate Wins in Argentina

[RetroGen]

If right and left are defined primarily by economic philosophy, Milei is far right. Authoritarianism can be categorized separately, though most rightwing populists rule as authoritarians, removing the rights of marginalized groups, regress democratic norms and laws, etc....

 

[jomaper]

If right and left are defined primarily by economic philosophy, Milei is far right. Authoritarianism can be categorized separately, though most rightwing populists rule as authoritarians, removing the rights of marginalized groups, regress democratic norms and laws, etc....

Just to add, the culturally "right" movement in the West is filled with people like Trump who are actually economically protectionist of their industry (much like Perón was here in Argentina, know for his "third position" because he wasn't left nor right). This motherfucker is a globalist who will open up the country so we get completely emptied by outside forces and ending up as basically a colony of the US and Israel.

 

[tabzer]

Because I live here and I know what kind of discourse he has. I also know how easy it is to fall for what the media says. The dude has a heavy right platform with an alt right rigid voting base (15% or so I'd say). He's best friends with Bolsonaro and his even more right-leaning son. His vicepresident I already gave context in a previous comment. He's now allied with Macri who's a neo-liberal (right leaning). He was visited and congratulated by all the heavy right leaning movements in the West, starting with Trump and followed by Kast in Chile, Bolsonaro in Brasil, Bukele in El Salvador, Vox in Spain.
Anyone acting as if he isn't far right is being naive or doing it on purpose.

But can you comment on his actual policies? I personally don't buy into the whole "left vs right" bipolar framework. If you had three competing parties, it'd be a triangle. I'm personally interested in more points of comparison. It seems like people prefer right vs. wrong type of thinking (everyone thinks they are right) as opposed to a diversity of perspectives, because it requires less thinking. Ideally, everyone should be allied.

 

[jomaper]

But can you comment on his actual policies? I personally don't buy into the whole "left vs right" bipolar framework. If you had three competing parties, it'd be a triangle. I'm personally interested in more points of comparison. It seems like people prefer right vs. wrong type of thinking (everyone thinks they are right) as opposed to a diversity of perspectives because it requires less thinking.

It's been 4 days so his actual policies haven't been long enough, but I can tell you this already: he devalued our coin (took the USD from $400 to $800) and made the third biggest devaluation in our history, only below Alfonsín who ended up his final year in power with 3000% inflation.
He made his whole campaign saying he wouldn't make the people pay the devaluation and adjustment but the "casta" (corrupt politicians, the market lobby and everyone who's in cahoots with the corrupt) and then he ended up teaming up with one half of the "casta" (Macri's party).
Now he fucked everyone by cutting their buying power by literally half in a single day, while not announcing literally anything positive to come (EDIT: I'll correct myself, the only positive thing they announced is doubling on social subsidy for the very poor, raise that won't achieve much considering the level of devaluation we just suffered). In fact, they're going to present a 300 pages decree that will deregulate the whole State, privatizing State owned companies and deregulating the whole working rights (BY A LOT) which will end up with even lower salaries.
They also announced deregulating every single subsidy present, mainly in services and transport. This will end up rising the cost of energy and transport by more than a 100%, bringing people even more below the poverty line.
He's the right wing dream of economic liberalism and we're gonna have hell to pay for it. Dark times are coming for most of us.

 

[Foxi4]

Because I live here and I know what kind of discourse he has. I also know how easy it is to fall for what the media says. The dude has a heavy right platform with an alt right rigid voting base (15% or so I'd say). He's best friends with Bolsonaro and his even more right-leaning son. His vicepresident I already gave context in a previous comment. He's now allied with Macri who's a neo-liberal (right leaning). He was visited and congratulated by all the heavy right leaning movements in the West, starting with Trump and followed by Kast in Chile, Bolsonaro in Brasil, Bukele in El Salvador, Vox in Spain.
Anyone acting as if he isn't far right is being naive or doing it on purpose.

The expected annual rate of inflation in Argentina is supposed to hit 210%, per JP Morgan. Whatever you guys were doing up to this point isn’t working, so I’m not sure how reliable of a narrator you are in this instance.

 

[tabzer]

The expected annual rate of inflation in Argentina is supposed to hit 210%, per JP Morgan. Whatever you guys were doing up to this point isn’t working, so I’m not sure how reliable of a narrator you are in this instance.

Dude is a victim of corrupt politics (but who isn't?), and it isn't reasonable to expect that another politician is going to fix things.

 

[Foxi4]

It's been 4 days so his actual policies haven't been long enough, but I can tell you this already: he devalued our coin (took the USD from $400 to $800) and made the third biggest devaluation in our history, only below Alfonsín who ended up his final year in power with 3000% inflation.
He made his whole campaign saying he wouldn't make the people pay the devaluation and adjustment but the "casta" (corrupt politicians, the market lobby and everyone who's in cahoots with the corrupt) and then he ended up teaming up with one half of the "casta" (Macri's party).
Now he fucked everyone by cutting their buying power by literally half in a single day, while not announcing literally anything positive to come (EDIT: I'll correct myself, the only positive thing they announced is doubling on social subsidy for the very poor, raise that won't achieve much considering the level of devaluation we just suffered). In fact, they're going to present a 300 pages decree that will deregulate the whole State, privatizing State owned companies and deregulating the whole working rights (BY A LOT) which will end up with even lower salaries.
They also announced deregulating every single subsidy present, mainly in services and transport. This will end up rising the cost of energy and transport by more than a 100%, bringing people even more below the poverty line.
He's the right wing dream of economic liberalism and we're gonna have hell to pay for it. Dark times are coming for most of us.

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Yeah, because your currency’s value is only competitive with Monopoly bucks at this point. Cutting it in half is actually pretty modest, all things considered. You are well on your way to take paychecks back home in wheelbarrows unless drastic measures are implemented, and fast.

 

[jomaper]

Yeah, because your currency’s value is competitive with Monopoly bucks at this point. Cutting it in half is actually pretty modest, all things considered. You are well on your way to take paychecks back home in wheelbarrows unless drastic measures are implemented, and fast.

"Your currency competes with Monopoly bucks so you should cut its value in half again" yeah that makes sense.

The expected annual rate of inflation in Argentina is supposed to hit 210%, per JP Morgan. Whatever you guys were doing up to this point isn’t working, so I’m not sure how reliable of a narrator you are in this instance.

First of all the inflation for this past year has been closer to 150%, secondly please check what's estimated with this new government. Let me spoil you real quick: 60% at the very least from December to February.

 

[Foxi4]

"Your currency competes with Monopoly bucks so you should cut its value in half again" yeah that makes sense.

It does, if you understand how banking works.

First of all the inflation for this past year has been closer to 150%, secondly please check what's estimated with this new government. Let me spoil you real quick: 60% at the very least from December to February.

You can argue with JP Morgan, it’s their estimate, not mine. 60% over the course of 3 months sounds about in line with what I’d expect, too.

 

[jomaper]

It does, if you understand how banking works.

You can argue with JP Morgan, it’s their estimate, not mine. 60% over the course of 3 months sounds about in line with what I’d expect, too.

Yeah my man, their estimate is taking into consideration this last month with a new government in charge, AFTER the devaluation.

 

[Foxi4]

Yeah my man, their estimate is taking into consideration this last month with a new government in charge, AFTER the devaluation.

I’m sure it does, because recession next year is unavoidable at this stage. The shock measures are not intended to prevent it, they’re intended to accelerate recovery from it. Devaluing the peso takes it close to the black market value and while it increases cost of imports, it makes exports more competitive, which in turn helps in patching the trade deficit. He’s not trying to stop the house fire - the house is burning down, there’s no stopping that. He’s preparing to rebuild once everything turns to ash, with a planned rebalancing of the budget by 2024. It’s going to be a rough year for you guys, because it has to be.

 

[jomaper]

I’m sure it does, because recession next year is unavoidable at this stage. The shock measures are not intended to prevent it, they’re intended to accelerate recovery from it. Devaluing the peso takes it close to the black market value and while it increase cost of imports, it makes exports more competitive, which in turn helps in patching the trade deficit. He’s not trying to stop the house fire - the house is burning. He’s preparing to rebuild once everything turns to ash, with a planned rebalancing of the budget by 2024. It’s going to be a rough year for you guys, because it has to be.

Except they haven't opened up the clamp on USD so it's only a matter of time until the black market price of the USD goes up and makes the shock completely useless and requires another one. They did everything by half which will only mean having another shock devaluation in 3 months.

 

[Foxi4]

Except they haven't opened up the clamp on USD so it's only a matter of time until the black market price of the USD goes up and makes the shock completely useless and requires another one. They did everything by half which will only mean having another shock devaluation in 3 months.

Not really, considering this is step 1. Step 2 is devaluing it by a further 2% each month to chase the line. He’s your guy, you should know this better than I do.

 

[jomaper]

Not really, considering this is step 1. Step 2 is devaluing it by a further 2% each month to chase the line. He’s your guy, you should know this better than I do.

I know better, that's why I'm telling you what every single one of his economic friends/collaborators have been saying (Diego Giacomini, Carlos Maslatón, Carlos Rodriguez): he made a shock devaluation that hit hard on the lower and middle class with no real chance in the future to survive until things get better. A 2% devaluation per month is NOTHING in the state we are. That's what the black market USD can raise in a single day easily and by not actually opening up the market the demand will still go to that black market. That crawling peg will not achieve its purpose.

 

[Foxi4]

I know better, that's why I'm telling you what every single one of his economic friends/collaborators have been saying (Diego Giacomini, Carlos Maslatón, Carlos Rodriguez): he made a shock devaluation that hit hard on the lower and middle class with no real chance in the future to survive until things get better. A 2% devaluation per month is NOTHING in the state we are. That's what the black market USD can raise in a single day easily and by not actually opening up the market the demand will still go to that black market. That crawling peg will not achieve its purpose.

It’s nothing for you, because your society is already dollarised for the most part. It sure sounds to me that you’ve made up your mind about the guy before he even started working. I’ll wait and see what the results show first.

 

[jomaper]

because your society is already dollarised for the most part.

Yeah no, no disrespect but you don't know what you're talking about. You wait and see though.

 

[tabzer]

Can we establish a benchmark that you both agree on so that a proper concession can be made by the offending party?

 

[Foxi4]

Yeah no, no disrespect but you don't know what you're talking about. You wait and see though.

It sure seems like it’s you guys who don’t know what you’re talking about, considering your country was taken to the brink of total collapse after many years of complete and utter mismanagement. Doing the same thing over and over again is not going to turn Argentina into Chile - your governments (not one, but many, over the course of many years) have established an unsustainable economic system that now has to be dismantled and replaced, and that’s not going to be a painless process. Don’t shoot the messenger here - I’m just telling you things you don’t want to hear. If his methods don’t work, I hope the next guy’s will, but radical change is needed regardless.

 

[jomaper]

It sure seems like it’s you guys who don’t know what you’re talking about, considering your country was taken to the brink of total collapse after many years of complete and utter mismanagement. Doing the same thing over and over again is not going to turn Argentina into Chile - your governments (not one, but many, over the course of many years) have established an unsustainable economic system that now has to be dismantled and replaced, and that’s not going to be a painless process. Don’t shoot the messenger here - I’m just telling you things you don’t want to hear. If his methods don’t work, I hope the next guy’s will, but radical change is needed regardless.

There's not a single way of doing things. Making the people pay, the same people who have been suffering for more than 8 years now, is one of them. That's not something I'll ever be on board with.
Right when Milei devaluated our currency by half Lula announced a new tax for the super rich that will bring balance to their economy, while having less inflation (so a more successful administration) than Bolsonaro.
Argentina has a lot of USD, more than almost every single country on earth (that's not the same as saying we're dollarised), there's many incredibly rich people. They never EVER pay for this. It's always us regular folks while those in power and the very rich keep making bank.

Milei's formula isn't new. What he's doing they already did (or tried to do) with Macri in 2015, with Menem in the 90s and the military dictatorship in the 70s.

Post automatically merged: Dec 15, 2023

Honestly being talked down by someone who had a parliament screening in cinemas because of how much of a circus it was seems funny.

 

[Foxi4]

There's not a single way of doing things. Making the people pay, the same people who have been suffering for more than 8 years now, is one of them. That's not something I'll ever be on board with.

Nothing good has ever come without blood and sweat, nothing worth having is free. Sacrifices in the present are often required for prosperity in the long term. You guys voted for the predicament you’re in now - the medicine is bitter, but you’ll either grin and bear it or languish until you devolve into a second Venezuela.

Right when Milei devaluated our currency by half Lula announced a new tax for the super rich that will bring balance to their economy, while having less inflation (so a more successful administration) than Bolsonaro.
Argentina has a lot of USD, more than almost every single country on earth (that's not the same as saying we're dollarised), there's many incredibly rich people. They never EVER pay for this. It's always us regular folks while those in power and the very rich keep making bank.

You *just* said that Argentina is not dollarised and now you’re saying the opposite. Decide which side of your mouth you’d like to talk with.

Milei's formula isn't new.

Oldie but a goodie.

What he's doing they already did (or tried to do) with Macri in 2015, with Menem in the 90s and the military dictatorship in the 70s.

Macri didn’t go far enough. It’s generally difficult to pick a good trajectory when all the options are bad. As I said, recession is inevitable. You can start mentally preparing for things getting significantly worse before they get any better.