Remember the media loves bad news, and loves to make people panic, as it causes them to get more eye balls! The media is eating this up, they're making so much money off ads. Good news doesn't get them as many viewers.
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https://www.ijcmas.com/vol-3-4/Kausar Malik and Nabiha Naeem.pdf
There are actually more Escherichia coli bacteria on Smartphone, PC Tablet than in the toilet.
Now replace media with "(authors of) crime novels". And read the sentence again.
Also advertisers actually dont like that stuff, because they deem it controversial. But that actually was operational logic from a time, when users still payed for media mostly. So media could and would pick which advertisers to go with.
Advanced lesson:
Find the "Murder, sex and crime" in domesitc politics, foreign politics, economics, culture and sport. Because aside from 'local' those are the main news categories in any paper youd buy.
Of course you are skipping those (looked at the Dow Jones lately?) and go exactly to Human interest stories, personal interest and people died - to characterize media, because?
The media forced you to?
Still the first lesson. Its about highjacking your attention span. Same thing every youtuber does with duckface and wide eyed played emotion on every popular youtube video ever. Fontsetting and title crafting they both have figured out. And to be honest, I personally like to read my media with 'murder mysteries' over 'duckface fake emotion mugshots' all the time. If I had to pick. Luckily I dont have to (I dont read yellow press, if I have the choice.).
Last edited by notimp,
Going for the lies, damn lies and statistics approach are we?
On the site I clicked on the country graph and grabbed the numbers. Nice new column for Total deaths / Total cases * 100 because they care to tell me how many are still critical but not that. Nothing among the big numbers of cases seems close to that, Italy being the worst (assuming China is accurate of course, which I think we are doubting) at any major rate at 8.57489206950086%, Indonesia just edging it out for enough cases to count (Sudan had 2 cases, 1 dead, anybody else has not clocked 100 cases -- though San Marino is pretty high for what it is mind you). Most others barely clear 1% and only Spain in the developed countries that are not Italy to go over 5% (the UK might end up there if this drags on for too much longer, and France still seems to have enough in the serious/critical column to tip it over). 11.7021276595745 does seem to be Algeria's percentage though with that from 94 cases).
None of that says how many were elderly and/or infirm either.
While few people here have ever heard of Worldmeters, I'm fairly certain most have heard of Reuters. Their data that is slightly lagging behind, but is identical to where Worldmeters numbers were at earlier in the day, including the overall mortality rate among closed cases:
10%
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-MAP/0100B59S39E/index.html
Last edited by LumInvader,
I was not doubting worldmeters (was prepared to but assumed it was good for the purposes of that).
Still if we are using Reuters then going from their totals graph (can't be bothered to play with the spreadsheet right now)
Worldwide
254,762(+9,713) 89,945(+1,457) 10,451(+423)
10451/254762
That is
4.10226014869%
Again that is worldwide too. Pick various countries with decent healthcare and it is even better, though many cases are still active in a lot of those (Japan seems to be on the downswing and doing pretty well).
If you scroll up, you'll notice I'm citing data from "closed cases" since those are the true measure of success or failure toward fighting this illness. Adding in patients who were just diagnosed today or yesterday shouldn't count as a success or failure. These new cases count toward the total figure, which is important for other reasons such as measuring the curve of the spread.
The difference between those numbers is also important as it will show how well healthcare is coping. This is why it's so important for people to follow the social distancing advice (even if they still think it's nonsense) as that percentage for cases with an outcome will continue to jump ahead of the overall deathrate as people start to die due to lack of resources.
When all is said and done then OK, most places that are not China (apparently) and maybe Japan with Iran maybe heading there as well seem to still be well the predominantly active/spread phase (don't know if we will see the second and third waves common in this sort of thing). Going back to the other source then there are a few places with a lot of critical cases (France for example) that could see it go higher.
Agreed. I do believe the current mortality rate (11%) will eventually come down since that number is being driven by a daily increase in total cases. It takes 2-3 weeks to get over Covid-19, but sadly, many of those who don't make it probably didn't make it that far. I also believe once the curve flattens and the mortality rate normalizes it'll be easier for scientists to make an estimation based on the rate of spread (r0) and applying it to existing data sets. Which means that the 11% figure we're seeing right now will likely go down, but may remain higher than the Spanish Flu (H1N1) figure from 1918.
Also of concern are the interviews I'm seeing from medical professionals claiming that the data out of China didn't accurately reflect the severity of the illness or the ages of those with serious infections. IIRC, China cited that 80% of their cases were mild, while in the US we're seeing half of those patients developing pneumonia which takes much longer than 14 days to recover from. Also, I've been hearing that half of those in US ICU are ages 65 and below, which suggests that this bug doesn't just prey on the old and sick.
Yes. I saw an interview with a doctor in Holland who said that it was 50% below 70 in his hospital. He made it clear though that the outcomes were usually much better for the younger 50%. However, I'm not sure enough people realise that they are not magically immune because they're teenagers, and it's very easy for anyone of any age to end up hospitalised and if the service is struggling at that time it's going to be a bad experience.
6% of young infected (including young kids) are suffering of grave symptoms from the virus, yes, youngs a more likely to not get symptoms or die, but 6% of them do, and eventually, die.
Theses scary numbers are provided by one of the most hit country, Italia.
They're taking a big hit but their numbers and analysis are crucial informations that we get.
Mortality rate of young people (<16-35) that I've seen in western countries is 0.2%. Number for people suffering from grave symptoms is about 2%. With a hospitalization rate of about 4% (only estimated 4% of people infected need hospitalization).
Thats in a 'working system' (so not too stressed, not overflown).
In my estimation 'young people also are affected' is a truism, to get idiots off the streets, when you try to curb the curve through curfews.
All those measures are only really effective if you can coordinate them. If you have a group of people playing 'invincible' on the beach, they still are very good carriers for infection.
I say 'young people are not immune' is mostly PR. But, also remember that young people get all the respirators. (In Italy situation has now escalated so far, that people above 60 dont get them at all (too few available).) So at least feel uneasy knowing, that you'll probably be fine.
Sick vs. cured percentages probably can't be sensibly used, because the estimated number of unreported cases is so high, and at the same time a higher percentage of people with preexisting conditions might die earlier, but then not be available to die later on. And once you are dying, you are more likely to get tested..
Mortality rate will fluctuate though, because of the exponential nature of the distribution. Its very hard to know 'where in the curve' you are at any given point. F.e. lets say curfews bring down new infections, while death rate still stays stable for a while (people already infected), that also would hike up relative deathrate (delay). So extrapolating from percentages at any given point to "the risk for the entire population" is very hard.
Basically you cant just look at one or two statistics, you need models. So look those up if you are interested.
edit: Some stats: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18...of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/
(Really just one of the first articles sourced via google search for corona deathrate by age.)
Thats in a 'working system' (so not too stressed, not overflown).
In my estimation 'young people also are affected' is a truism, to get idiots off the streets, when you try to curb the curve through curfews.
All those measures are only really effective if you can coordinate them. If you have a group of people playing 'invincible' on the beach, they still are very good carriers for infection.
I say 'young people are not immune' is mostly PR. But, also remember that young people get all the respirators. (In Italy situation has now escalated so far, that people above 60 dont get them at all (too few available).) So at least feel uneasy knowing, that you'll probably be fine.
Sick vs. cured percentages probably can't be sensibly used, because the estimated number of unreported cases is so high, and at the same time a higher percentage of people with preexisting conditions might die earlier, but then not be available to die later on. And once you are dying, you are more likely to get tested..
Mortality rate will fluctuate though, because of the exponential nature of the distribution. Its very hard to know 'where in the curve' you are at any given point. F.e. lets say curfews bring down new infections, while death rate still stays stable for a while (people already infected), that also would hike up relative deathrate (delay). So extrapolating from percentages at any given point to "the risk for the entire population" is very hard.
Basically you cant just look at one or two statistics, you need models. So look those up if you are interested.
edit: Some stats: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18...of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/
(Really just one of the first articles sourced via google search for corona deathrate by age.)
Last edited by notimp,
Upon trying to wrap my head around this again-
- Number of people cured (measured) in the same timeframe should be by a disproportionate factor lower than people getting over it in the general public.
- Low test availability plays a significant role in this as well.
Structurally so, because lets say test capabilities increase roughly linearly, but the virus spreads on an exponential curve, at some trajectory of the exponential curve you can only test linearly more people every day, but the death toll still rises exponentially. Hence 'measured' deathrate rises, over people testedly getting over it (People more likely to get tested, when they show, heavier symptoms/are in danger of dying). But actual one doesnt (if hospitals f.e. still are operational).
Basically the "people getting better" number is useless, and only part of statistics, to give people an easy emotional thing thats bigger, to latch on.
Any statistic using that as a reference should be pretty useless.
Instead you probably are operating with "compared to previous quarters" numbers of increases of deaths vs. overall population, look at the current estimated case number and progression rate in your country, and extrapolate from there.
Why do I have to be math guy. I'm bad at math. Someone else be math guy.
- Number of people cured (measured) in the same timeframe should be by a disproportionate factor lower than people getting over it in the general public.
- Low test availability plays a significant role in this as well.
Structurally so, because lets say test capabilities increase roughly linearly, but the virus spreads on an exponential curve, at some trajectory of the exponential curve you can only test linearly more people every day, but the death toll still rises exponentially. Hence 'measured' deathrate rises, over people testedly getting over it (People more likely to get tested, when they show, heavier symptoms/are in danger of dying). But actual one doesnt (if hospitals f.e. still are operational).
Basically the "people getting better" number is useless, and only part of statistics, to give people an easy emotional thing thats bigger, to latch on.
Any statistic using that as a reference should be pretty useless.
Instead you probably are operating with "compared to previous quarters" numbers of increases of deaths vs. overall population, look at the current estimated case number and progression rate in your country, and extrapolate from there.
Why do I have to be math guy. I'm bad at math. Someone else be math guy.
Last edited by notimp,
Vatican just indicated that there will/can be a general absolution for corona.
So you know, that you only can go to heaven if your sins are forgiven by a priest in confession?
For corona priests now get the option to forgive your sins, without confession. They have to ask their bishop though. "Before, or shortly after".
(Shortage of priests in italy. )
src: https://www.vaticannews.va/de/vatik...prechung-poenitentiarie-vollkommen-dekre.html (German) via fefe
So you know, that you only can go to heaven if your sins are forgiven by a priest in confession?
For corona priests now get the option to forgive your sins, without confession. They have to ask their bishop though. "Before, or shortly after".
Always good to know the logistics..
(Shortage of priests in italy. )src: https://www.vaticannews.va/de/vatik...prechung-poenitentiarie-vollkommen-dekre.html (German) via fefe
Last edited by notimp,
If you count in people who die because of other reasons since you can't get a hospital bed and care in Italy for instance the number will be way bigger than that.
And there are people still defending it's 'hysteria'.
Last edited by phalk,
Here you see the issue with projected deathrate meeting linear testing availability:
src: https://www.trackcorona.live/
(line graph)
If you see the recovered curve always progress linearly, you know that something is up. (too few tests available and unequally distributed)
Otherwise 'recovered' curve is just lagging in exponentiality by about 10+ days.
I've seen many versions of that graph, where people recovered are just added on top of the confirmed infection line for whatever reason.
src: https://www.trackcorona.live/
(line graph)
If you see the recovered curve always progress linearly, you know that something is up.
(too few tests available and unequally distributed)Otherwise 'recovered' curve is just lagging in exponentiality by about 10+ days.
I've seen many versions of that graph, where people recovered are just added on top of the confirmed infection line for whatever reason.
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@SylverReZ,+1
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