US presidential election

[smile72]

No man, his daughter is real sick. He's dropping out to be with her.

I'm aware that's the explanation he's offered, though I'd be willing to make a $10,000 bet that his trailing in the polls (even in his own home state) and massive campaign debt were the primary reasons he dropped out (or, at the very least, played a significant role).

The real reason is Pennsylvania, if he stayed in, he would have lost his home state that would have fucked him over for 2016, when Ronald Reagan lost in 1976, he won his home state of California. Rick Santorum would have lost Pennsylvania. So I agree, he didn't drop out for his daughter.

 

[notmeanymore]

>Santorum drops out of the race.
>America is saved.

Fixed it for you.

Mmm nope. I meant what I said. If he didn't have a chance and would've lost anyway, then him dropping out should have no influence on the outcome of the race.

 

[smile72]

>Santorum drops out of the race.
>America is saved.

Fixed it for you.

Mmm nope. I meant what I said. If he didn't have a chance and would've lost anyway, then him dropping out should have no influence on the outcome of the race.

He will be running in 2016 or 2020 don't kid yourself, losing Pennsylvania would have hurt him severely in 2016.

 

[notmeanymore]

>Santorum drops out of the race.
>America is saved.

Fixed it for you.

Mmm nope. I meant what I said. If he didn't have a chance and would've lost anyway, then him dropping out should have no influence on the outcome of the race.

He will be running in 2016 or 2020 don't kid yourself, losing Pennsylvania would have hurt him severely in 2016.

But regardless he would lose 2012 according to you. And I doubt he'll be running in 2016, unless by some bizarre occurrence Obama wins.
Hopefully in 2016/2020, Mike Huckabee will run again.

 

[smile72]

>Santorum drops out of the race.
>America is saved.

Fixed it for you.

Mmm nope. I meant what I said. If he didn't have a chance and would've lost anyway, then him dropping out should have no influence on the outcome of the race.

He will be running in 2016 or 2020 don't kid yourself, losing Pennsylvania would have hurt him severely in 2016.

But regardless he would lose 2012 according to you. And I doubt he'll be running in 2016, unless by some bizarre occurrence Obama wins.
Hopefully in 2016/2020, Mike Huckabee will run again.

No, it's a fact he would lose 2012. Obama, has a good chance of winning, he's actually a good president, much better than his predecessor.

 

[notmeanymore]

I'm Republican. You're Democratic. This conversation is going nowhere.

 

[smile72]

I'm Republican. You're Democratic. This conversation is going nowhere.

Doesn't change the fact that Obama is still a good president.

 

[Lacius]

But regardless he would lose 2012 according to you.

It is unlikely that Santorum would have been able to win the general election.

And I doubt he'll be running in 2016

Santorum is at least considering running in 2016. And if history has shown us anything, he will likely be the initial front runner. If he had lost Pennsylvania, it would have hurt him in 2016, and we all knew he wasn't going to get the nomination in 2012.

unless by some bizarre occurrence Obama wins.

A lot can happen between now and the general election, but according to recent data, if the election were held today between Obama and Romney, Obama would likely win.

Hopefully in 2016/2020, Mike Huckabee will run again.

I don't think he is willing to give up his program on Fox News.

 

[notmeanymore]

unless by some bizarre occurrence Obama wins.

A lot can happen between now and the general election, but according to recent data, if the election were held today between Obama and Romney, Obama would likely win.

Hopefully in 2016/2020, Mike Huckabee will run again.

I don't think he is willing to give up his program on Fox News.

Exactly. That's why I don't want Romney to win. This is so backward; Romney's winning and yet he's probably the least likely of the four to win against Obama.

And if I remember correctly, Neil Cavuto said on air that Fox News would allow him to keep his show if he ran for President. I'm sure the same would apply for Huckabee.

 

[FlashX007]

To be perfectly honest I think neither party are good enough. There needs to be serious changes in both parties. Honestly both sides are lying and deceitful. Although Democrats hold a better value they are just as corrupt as the Republicans.

 

[Lacius]

That's why I don't want Romney to win. This is so backward; Romney's winning and yet he's probably the least likely of the four to win against Obama.

Like Santorum's positions or not, they're too radical for the general public. Santorum would have never carried swing states. Santorum's ultra-conservative base likely wouldn't have been enough to carry him to the presidency. This is why Romney was actually the best pick among the field of candidates to run against Obama. The problem for Republicans is that Romney is not a very electable candidate either. The other problem for the Republicans is that their current war on women has created a gender gap of about 10-20 points across the board among women (all women). Likewise, it has created more enthusiasm among women, so not only are women now much more likely to vote for Obama, but they are also much more likely now to be the ones who show up and vote. Don't focus all the blame on Romney when the Republicans just have bad policies. And a lot of them.

 

[smile72]

That's why I don't want Romney to win. This is so backward; Romney's winning and yet he's probably the least likely of the four to win against Obama.

Like Santorum's positions or not, they're too radical for the general public. Santorum would have never carried swing states. Santorum's ultra-conservative base likely wouldn't have been enough to carry him to the presidency. This is why Romney was actually the best pick among the field of candidates to run against Obama. The problem for Republicans is that Romney is not a very electable candidate either. The other problem for the Republicans is that their current war on women has created a gender gap of about 10-20 points across the board among women (all women). Likewise, it has created more enthusiasm among women, so not only are women now much more likely to vote for Obama, but they are also much more likely now to be the ones who show up and vote. Don't focus all the blame on Romney when the Republicans just have bad policies. And a lot of them.

Not true, at all most of Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina are all in the Bible Belt. Even Ohio is pretty conservative. Santorum could have won, had he not been against Romney.

 

[BlueStar]

I'd have more chance of beating Obama than Santorum.

You don't have to convince very conservative voters to vote for the republican candidates, they will anyway. And there's not enough of them in the country to elect you as president. You need at least some moderates and Santorum is industrial grade, concentrated moderate repellant.

Plus even many people who are outwardly against pornography and abortion will think twice in the privacy of the voting booth if they think laws against them might actually be implemented.

 

[Gahars]

That's why I don't want Romney to win. This is so backward; Romney's winning and yet he's probably the least likely of the four to win against Obama.

Like Santorum's positions or not, they're too radical for the general public. Santorum would have never carried swing states. Santorum's ultra-conservative base likely wouldn't have been enough to carry him to the presidency. This is why Romney was actually the best pick among the field of candidates to run against Obama. The problem for Republicans is that Romney is not a very electable candidate either. The other problem for the Republicans is that their current war on women has created a gender gap of about 10-20 points across the board among women (all women). Likewise, it has created more enthusiasm among women, so not only are women now much more likely to vote for Obama, but they are also much more likely now to be the ones who show up and vote. Don't focus all the blame on Romney when the Republicans just have bad policies. And a lot of them.

Not true, at all most of Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina are all in the Bible Belt. Even Ohio is pretty conservative. Santorum could have won, had he not been against Romney.

There's a big difference between "conservative" and "Rick Santorum-conservative." Many of the Republican voters in those states (especially Florida) wouldn't want someone with his extreme positions to win; if they wouldn't vote for Obama, they'd likely just skip the election altogether. On the flip side, his candidacy would energize the Democratic base to come and vote.

You're also forgetting about independents, who really end up deciding the swing states. The support for Rick Santorum among them was fainter than a fart in a tornado.

 

[smile72]

That's why I don't want Romney to win. This is so backward; Romney's winning and yet he's probably the least likely of the four to win against Obama.

Like Santorum's positions or not, they're too radical for the general public. Santorum would have never carried swing states. Santorum's ultra-conservative base likely wouldn't have been enough to carry him to the presidency. This is why Romney was actually the best pick among the field of candidates to run against Obama. The problem for Republicans is that Romney is not a very electable candidate either. The other problem for the Republicans is that their current war on women has created a gender gap of about 10-20 points across the board among women (all women). Likewise, it has created more enthusiasm among women, so not only are women now much more likely to vote for Obama, but they are also much more likely now to be the ones who show up and vote. Don't focus all the blame on Romney when the Republicans just have bad policies. And a lot of them.

Not true, at all most of Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina are all in the Bible Belt. Even Ohio is pretty conservative. Santorum could have won, had he not been against Romney.

There's a big difference between "conservative" and "Rick Santorum-conservative." Many of the Republican voters in those states (especially Florida) wouldn't want someone with his extreme positions to win; if they wouldn't vote for Obama, they'd likely just skip the election altogether. On the flip side, his candidacy would energize the Democratic base to come and vote.

You're also forgetting about independents, who really end up deciding the swing states. The support for Rick Santorum among them was fainter than a fart in a tornado.

Yes, but it does energize the conservatives, and those independents are often a lot more conservative than you think. Mitt Romney alienates a decent amount of conservatives, simply because they don't want to vote for him because in their eyes, it's like voting for Obama, so they won't be turning out on November 6th.

I'd have more chance of beating Obama than Santorum.

You don't have to convince very conservative voters to vote for the republican candidates, they will anyway. And there's not enough of them in the country to elect you as president. You need at least some moderates and Santorum is industrial grade, concentrated moderate repellant.

Plus even many people who are outwardly against pornography and abortion will think twice in the privacy of the voting booth if they think laws against them might actually be implemented.

Were you born in America? If not, no you could not beat Obama.

 

[Gahars]

@[member='smile72']

A candidate like Santorum only energizes the most extreme fringes of the conservative base (the people who vote in the primaries is only a minority, and don't reflect the party membership as a whole). The moderates in the Republican party would not tip their support to a man like that; as I said, if they wouldn't vote for Obama, then they would likely just skip the election altogether.

And no, not quite. Independents are a bit more centrist than anything else. At the very least, they support policies like access to contraception for women and more sympathetic treatment of illegal immigrants; not exactly popular ideas with the modern Republican party.

Mitt Romney's real problem isn't with conservatives voting for him; while many aren't exactly thrilled with him as a candidate, he's not hated or even greatly disliked either. His real problem lies with the rest of the nation. While he might have been able to trumpet his status as a moderate in previous elections, he's had to take staunchly conservative positions on key issues (like the previously mentioned immigration and contraception) in order to placate the party's base this time around. Romney has basically won the primary, but he alienated independent, as well as women, voters in the process (and the poll numbers are reflecting this).

Winning those key voters back and distancing himself from the right wing elements of the party may very well be a huge challenge (possibly the greatest) for Romney in the upcoming election.

Also, on the subject of the post @BlueStar made...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xECUrlnXCqk

 

[notmeanymore]

There's a big difference between "conservative" and "Rick Santorum-conservative." Many of the Republican voters in those states (especially Florida) wouldn't want someone with his extreme positions to win; if they wouldn't vote for Obama, they'd likely just skip the election altogether. On the flip side, his candidacy would energize the Democratic base to come and vote.

You're also forgetting about independents, who really end up deciding the swing states. The support for Rick Santorum among them was fainter than a fart in a tornado.

Yes, but it does energize the conservatives, and those independents are often a lot more conservative than you think. Mitt Romney alienates a decent amount of conservatives, simply because they don't want to vote for him because in their eyes, it's like voting for Obama, so they won't be turning out on November 6th.

I know as a conservative I'd rather Romney won than Obama so I'll go out and vote purely for the chance of that.

 

[BlueStar]

Yes, but it does energize the conservatives, and those independents are often a lot more conservative than you think. Mitt Romney alienates a decent amount of conservatives, simply because they don't want to vote for him because in their eyes, it's like voting for Obama, so they won't be turning out on November 6th.

The 'engergised' conservatives who wouldn't have otherwise have gone out and voted would be massively outnumbered by normal conservatives and moderates who would be horrified by what the GOP had turned into. And the vast, vast majority of those 'energised' nutters will still be voting for Romney just because he's not Obama.

Santorum getting the nomination would have been the best thing to happen to Obama since being elected.

 

[smile72]

Yes, but it does energize the conservatives, and those independents are often a lot more conservative than you think. Mitt Romney alienates a decent amount of conservatives, simply because they don't want to vote for him because in their eyes, it's like voting for Obama, so they won't be turning out on November 6th.

The 'engergised' conservatives who wouldn't have otherwise have gone out and voted would be massively outnumbered by normal conservatives and moderates who would be horrified by what the GOP had turned into. And the vast, vast majority of those 'energised' nutters will still be voting for Romney just because he's not Obama.

Santorum getting the nomination would have been the best thing to happen to Obama since being elected.

You all forget the fact that had he won the nomination, he would then work his way toward normal conservative.
http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/
I can't believe Obama is beating Mitt Romney in North Carolina and losing in Virginia.

 

[Gahars]

@[member='smile72']

No one has forgotten that, but when you say things like (on the subject of pregnant [censored] victims)...

I believe and I think that the right approach is to accept this horribly created, in the sense of [censored], but nevertheless, in a very broken way, a gift of human life, and accept what God is giving to you.

Yeah, distancing yourself from such an extreme position is going to be a nigh impossible task.