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Was brexit good or bad for the UK?
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It will probably be a thing debated in UK circles for decades to come.
From where I sit it is still and would still be a post industrial society that has enough people in power that cling to some nostalgia for an age that never existed* such that if you don't work in finance** in London you are never going to afford a house and kids, which in turn if said house and kids (or at least those of other people in the great ponzi scheme) are your retirement means you are not going to live a fun life.
*generally referred to as nimby (Not In My Back Yard) and banana (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone) lest your Victorian house get a bad smell near it or your cottage overlooking the field of rapeseed oil (arguably a 50 year old product for this incarnation, maybe 80 for a slight twist) has a warehouse built there instead. Wind into that a dose of health and safety wonk and intellectual property laws of questionable merit and you are not going to be doing big factories or inventing anything that sticks around when everywhere else in the world will welcome you fondly and make your life easier (if nothing else by taxing you way less). The UK is also a tiny island fairly naturally populated over millenia at an agreeable density, compared to the US that had rather less thought put into its build out (despite nominally claiming to do more -- the US single family home thing popular after world war 2 is a looming disaster -- it does not end with a few weirdos shooting power lines, nasty water and trains falling over, see also Greece).
**not everybody is cut out to work in an office/quasi office in their spare room. Working for the government (military, health service, government make work) is also not really adding to GDP as much as shifting it around, and maybe making sure the good little workers stay healthy enough for their working life (one of the bright spots in future predictions of pension funds is the parade of fat bastards dropping dead of a heart attack close enough to the retirement age where their parents and grandparents which showed a modicum of restraint would have drained resources for years more).
How much that was to do with the EU is murkier, as it how much being pivotal part of the EU would have alleviated that is similarly up for debate. There is some high end industrial in rich parts of Europe, and places where house prices are at least reasonable in said same. At the same time half of Europe suffers from awful geography (see the med) or lingering effects of the USSR/communism and thus nothing is likely to come back when the far better optics of helping out a poor Greek farm that has evaded paying taxes for generations now or Romanian slum get running water (but not so quick as to mean they get rich and your companies making things in the EU have to pay high wages or risk that little selling point on the box).
How useful London will continue to be without it being a truly easy English speaking (between the US and it being the world's second language then you like that as an international company) portal to the EU remains to be seen, though there is enough money laundering (sorry private banks they are called) and fun, as well as residual ease (still same time zones, language abilities and existing connections) that it will probably take a while to sink.
There is also the question of distance and even if the UK had remained an isolated island the distance component of shipping means alignment with the greater power of a united European block*** will filter back into your products and business relations. Resigning a seat at the table then being a less than stellar plan unless the cost of that seat (money almost worthless to discuss, immigration one you could debate but not like they have stemmed a tide, gutted the law books of EU or even their sworn opposition's junk in there since the 90s or anything there despite having control and a mandate).
*** the requirements of which are generally the same as most first world countries will go in for.
On stemming the tide that then brings you onto land borders (something of a non issue for the most part, just squeaky wheel that they foolishly relied upon) and competence of the politicians administering it. I don't necessarily think they are incompetent (though it is a very convincing act) but who has guns pointed where and knows where the bodies are buried to force it I am unsure (multiple factions from entrenched unelected parties of various types, money men in various places and more besides that all variously ally and oppose each other as the hours go by, and can afford to play the long game where politicians are dancing seals that care only about the next election and personal legacy). Again though what would have happened had they been truly cut throat, known everything and everybody, willing to put a boot the neck of people that can make changes happen, leverage all the intelligence apparatus at their disposal... when underlying it is still said post industrial nation that is not going to compete with elsewhere too easily.
There might be such a thing as a self sustaining country but the UK lacks the natural resources to pull that off (though that is also a curse in economics as you then fall victim to the whims of the market -- south America and Africa have some of the best natural resources in the world and look how that is going), or seemingly even really feed itself (never mind with a nice selection). Finance/service economy is a way to get around that (it scales almost endlessly and thus the money flows in faster than it flows out, and without too much in the way of hang ups like the industrial set when your rare earth metal supplier, probably in a part of the world they can pollute to dig it up cheap, does the civil war thing), with the added bonus of as long as you keep your atrocities perpetrated by your spooky ninjas and generally to poor countries then people will never not talk to you. What you do with your swathes of useless people remains to be seen, America seems content to let them die (quite cheap comparatively), China takes a more active approach, Europe (which would include the UK in this) seems to give them just enough to be fat and miserable enough to take their own life/drink themselves to death around the time the stats still look good.
Only real question is whether the Canzuk (basically post US rebellion British Empire people actually want to live in so no African or Indian parts really at this juncture, maybe in a few decades if the space race kicks off or the remaining good parts of south Africa split off into a micro nation) becomes a thing, though that seems more of a pipe dream and as Canada is pushing for EU ties and thus EU regulations then eh.
Also while good for the UK was the premise I will also ask what becomes of the EU. Money it gave and took means it is all somewhat immaterial in this beyond the initial shock of part of the budget evaporating. The UK was a big swinging dick so it is now more of the France and Germany show (they work together but also don't, Germany doing a lot of focus on its former empire while France seems to be redoing its mediterrean conquests instead in addition to its African empire), the EU also being split somewhat into three (odd for such things -- mathematics tends to reduce it to two) voting blocks not necessarily spit along national lines with the UK variously propping one or more of those up at times. I doubt many are particularly upset about not going to the UK to work or holiday trivially (holidays are easy, anybody that wanted to work and has skills can probably still manage it, though convenience might win out in a few cases or they say screw it and try to go to the US as it is going to be annoying either way).
From where I sit it is still and would still be a post industrial society that has enough people in power that cling to some nostalgia for an age that never existed* such that if you don't work in finance** in London you are never going to afford a house and kids, which in turn if said house and kids (or at least those of other people in the great ponzi scheme) are your retirement means you are not going to live a fun life.
*generally referred to as nimby (Not In My Back Yard) and banana (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone) lest your Victorian house get a bad smell near it or your cottage overlooking the field of rapeseed oil (arguably a 50 year old product for this incarnation, maybe 80 for a slight twist) has a warehouse built there instead. Wind into that a dose of health and safety wonk and intellectual property laws of questionable merit and you are not going to be doing big factories or inventing anything that sticks around when everywhere else in the world will welcome you fondly and make your life easier (if nothing else by taxing you way less). The UK is also a tiny island fairly naturally populated over millenia at an agreeable density, compared to the US that had rather less thought put into its build out (despite nominally claiming to do more -- the US single family home thing popular after world war 2 is a looming disaster -- it does not end with a few weirdos shooting power lines, nasty water and trains falling over, see also Greece).
**not everybody is cut out to work in an office/quasi office in their spare room. Working for the government (military, health service, government make work) is also not really adding to GDP as much as shifting it around, and maybe making sure the good little workers stay healthy enough for their working life (one of the bright spots in future predictions of pension funds is the parade of fat bastards dropping dead of a heart attack close enough to the retirement age where their parents and grandparents which showed a modicum of restraint would have drained resources for years more).
How much that was to do with the EU is murkier, as it how much being pivotal part of the EU would have alleviated that is similarly up for debate. There is some high end industrial in rich parts of Europe, and places where house prices are at least reasonable in said same. At the same time half of Europe suffers from awful geography (see the med) or lingering effects of the USSR/communism and thus nothing is likely to come back when the far better optics of helping out a poor Greek farm that has evaded paying taxes for generations now or Romanian slum get running water (but not so quick as to mean they get rich and your companies making things in the EU have to pay high wages or risk that little selling point on the box).
How useful London will continue to be without it being a truly easy English speaking (between the US and it being the world's second language then you like that as an international company) portal to the EU remains to be seen, though there is enough money laundering (sorry private banks they are called) and fun, as well as residual ease (still same time zones, language abilities and existing connections) that it will probably take a while to sink.
There is also the question of distance and even if the UK had remained an isolated island the distance component of shipping means alignment with the greater power of a united European block*** will filter back into your products and business relations. Resigning a seat at the table then being a less than stellar plan unless the cost of that seat (money almost worthless to discuss, immigration one you could debate but not like they have stemmed a tide, gutted the law books of EU or even their sworn opposition's junk in there since the 90s or anything there despite having control and a mandate).
*** the requirements of which are generally the same as most first world countries will go in for.
On stemming the tide that then brings you onto land borders (something of a non issue for the most part, just squeaky wheel that they foolishly relied upon) and competence of the politicians administering it. I don't necessarily think they are incompetent (though it is a very convincing act) but who has guns pointed where and knows where the bodies are buried to force it I am unsure (multiple factions from entrenched unelected parties of various types, money men in various places and more besides that all variously ally and oppose each other as the hours go by, and can afford to play the long game where politicians are dancing seals that care only about the next election and personal legacy). Again though what would have happened had they been truly cut throat, known everything and everybody, willing to put a boot the neck of people that can make changes happen, leverage all the intelligence apparatus at their disposal... when underlying it is still said post industrial nation that is not going to compete with elsewhere too easily.
There might be such a thing as a self sustaining country but the UK lacks the natural resources to pull that off (though that is also a curse in economics as you then fall victim to the whims of the market -- south America and Africa have some of the best natural resources in the world and look how that is going), or seemingly even really feed itself (never mind with a nice selection). Finance/service economy is a way to get around that (it scales almost endlessly and thus the money flows in faster than it flows out, and without too much in the way of hang ups like the industrial set when your rare earth metal supplier, probably in a part of the world they can pollute to dig it up cheap, does the civil war thing), with the added bonus of as long as you keep your atrocities perpetrated by your spooky ninjas and generally to poor countries then people will never not talk to you. What you do with your swathes of useless people remains to be seen, America seems content to let them die (quite cheap comparatively), China takes a more active approach, Europe (which would include the UK in this) seems to give them just enough to be fat and miserable enough to take their own life/drink themselves to death around the time the stats still look good.
Only real question is whether the Canzuk (basically post US rebellion British Empire people actually want to live in so no African or Indian parts really at this juncture, maybe in a few decades if the space race kicks off or the remaining good parts of south Africa split off into a micro nation) becomes a thing, though that seems more of a pipe dream and as Canada is pushing for EU ties and thus EU regulations then eh.
Also while good for the UK was the premise I will also ask what becomes of the EU. Money it gave and took means it is all somewhat immaterial in this beyond the initial shock of part of the budget evaporating. The UK was a big swinging dick so it is now more of the France and Germany show (they work together but also don't, Germany doing a lot of focus on its former empire while France seems to be redoing its mediterrean conquests instead in addition to its African empire), the EU also being split somewhat into three (odd for such things -- mathematics tends to reduce it to two) voting blocks not necessarily spit along national lines with the UK variously propping one or more of those up at times. I doubt many are particularly upset about not going to the UK to work or holiday trivially (holidays are easy, anybody that wanted to work and has skills can probably still manage it, though convenience might win out in a few cases or they say screw it and try to go to the US as it is going to be annoying either way).
It is an amazing success - for the EU that is. It's gonna break the UK, and it will be delicious.
The latest absolute nonsense being: "NI is in a privileged position being in both EU single market and UK!"
Literally anyone who isn't a brain-dead Brexitard, like obviously some people here "but... the whole UK had it..."
"Eh but now NI is the most exciting economic area in the world because of it!" (arguably)
"Again, the UK WAS most exciting economic area in the world IN ITS ENTIRETY BEFORE YOU COLOSSAL IDIOTS RUINED IT"
"[random cope about suvereinity and are cuntry while social and economic substrata of society drop like flies]"
The latest absolute nonsense being: "NI is in a privileged position being in both EU single market and UK!"
Literally anyone who isn't a brain-dead Brexitard, like obviously some people here "but... the whole UK had it..."
"Eh but now NI is the most exciting economic area in the world because of it!" (arguably)
"Again, the UK WAS most exciting economic area in the world IN ITS ENTIRETY BEFORE YOU COLOSSAL IDIOTS RUINED IT"
"[random cope about suvereinity and are cuntry while social and economic substrata of society drop like flies]"
Last edited by Dark_Ansem,
It's definitely helped to crystallise my wife and I's plans to get out of this country. Just a handful of years, with a bit of luck.
A bunch of people seemed to think brexit would mean going back to the 'good old days' of 'british is best' and such. Like it was back in the 60s when we produced most of our own goods, were key players in manufacturing, were enjoying a period of rapid economic growth, etc.
Instead we've ended up with the good old strikes and recession of the 70s.
But we seem to be much better at giving the rest of the world something to laugh at nowadays, so there is that I spose.
Instead we've ended up with the good old strikes and recession of the 70s.
But we seem to be much better at giving the rest of the world something to laugh at nowadays, so there is that I spose.
When we made shit stuff, but had kept the rest of the world in their place by stealing from them and installing corrupt governments, so they couldn't develop and compete with us.
There are some seriously disturbed leave voters out there.
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Why? EU benefits from the strength of the union. Losing a member is not great for the whole. You can argue that a specific country may have benefitted, like Germany gaining some business players that the UK lost, but as a whole, the net market is smaller.
You can claim that we can have some schadenfreude after decades of the EU being made the scapegoat for most things bad in the UK, but it's more sad than anything else. This only benefits those who propagated that lie: the politicians and rich people (including a certain Australia media mogul and living societal cancer) that will make use of the deregulation and they can get away with now. The poor people that believed that lie that came from their representatives and their media will be the ones to suffer.
If the 60s is the timeline for your quoted part then not by that point. The we'll take your cotton and sell you back cloth that you are effectively forbidden from making scheme (good times) had long since ended by that point (the Suez crisis was 1956 and that pretty much ended status as serious world power, cloth going way before then), anything after that was stuff like Argentine steel which is more of a financial concern/shenanigans that goes on to this day (what else are MI6 and the world's other foreign intelligence services going to do with their time?).
The quality of engineers, engineered goods (albeit some of that was a hangover from earlier times still), component materials, tools, scale of work achievable and most other metrics you care to look at was still world class.
Cheap energy, cheap labour, lax environmental regulations, rise of containerised shipping and to some extent a legacy hangover (same as anything* if you don't replace your fairly serviceable tools, which costs in disposal, write down and the new stuff with new shiny some upstart will buy in the new shiny and stick it into an empty shop/warehouse/whatever) along with America's ascension, not to mention Japan's, meant it bled out slowly over the decades to come.
Fast forward 15-20 years (I might make a comment about the then modern apprenticeships and BTEC world but I shall stay my tongue there) and if you are thinking the undeniably shit cars, now quite outdated tooling, BSA et al going pop, what innovation that did happen in electronics/computing is probably still now a state secret in BT (I went to school with a lot of kids from one of their research plants, seeing what books their parents have, much less at that time, and skills they had... they were doing a lot of special things) then different matter entirely.
Not entirely sure what to look at for the missed trick vis a vis high end engineering (no third world shithole masters high tech without a seriously hard to build underlying base that there is very little option to shortcut**, it is popular to look at China in this as well but they have they own set of problems that make that a dubious comparison) that Germany, Switzerland and the couple of micro nations go in for which still make them industrial powers, to a lesser extent some of the nordics as well and even Ireland is managing a bit these days, whilst also maintaining a healthy financial and services sector where the UK has three or four specialities dotted around the place and not much else. Short sighted politicians (the UK and Norway both effectively have the same amount of oil and gas reserves in the north sea, Norway's sovereign wealth fund makes it a world player despite being 119 on the list https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/ , the UK government at the time spending it rather than investing it), nimbys and bananas certainly play a role, as do unions, but they exist all over the place so there is probably something more.
*see also if you are going to pick a dentist, optician... pick a newly built one rather than the legacy one as new shiny tools and techniques will be present.
**even today all those nice hard drive plants in Thailand, pill manufacturers in India and Philippines and wherever else around there still take research started elsewhere (if it is invented in Europe they go to the US, do trials in Europe and build it in Asia to ship back), most skilled workers being sent over from the west (maybe one or two western educated locals to say you did), machinery/components imported, probably input resources as well, and cheap local semi skilled (which is 1000x better than working on a rice farm) to do what needs doing there. See also why such things don't work when some military junta takes over.
Wonderful comment. So much online discussion is polarised to the Nth degree that it's lovely to read something so nuanced and thoughtful. Just wanted to say that.
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And yet it could be so much better here without massive upheaval. We've gone so far off course and for what?
To enrich the Tories and the ImBrexiles. Off the skin of commoners.
It killed off anti EU sentiment and is bringing a significant amount of humble pie to a nation that for too long thought itself special and was treated as such.
Euroscepticism and anti EU sentiments (not necessarily the same thing -- the EU is the EU, Europe is something else) are still alive and well, including within the EU. To what extent they are enjoyed by the less invested in the concept* that might have gone along with something in the hopes it might have yielded some good and some bad, or be helmed by competent negotiators by people with a clue is a different matter.
Has done nicely for revealing all politicians of all stripes to be self serving if not morons then hands tied stagnation enjoyers. I can only hope it sticks this time but not like ample evidence of that has existed for decades, and centuries if you dig, millennia if you read between the lines.
*if Labour or some successor party (or at least a new leader) gets back in next time (likely enough, though not as likely/landslide like as it was a few months ago), even with a clear majority and no troubles with coalitions then movements back towards the EU would have to be very calculated. If by some miracle the EU said "yeah that was a trip, welcome back in as it was before" (maybe with a pay us the dues you missed and/or minor sit it out/observer only until next cycle) then maybe there would be enough support. https://assets.publishing.service.g...502291/54284_EU_Series_No1_Web_Accessible.pdf for the general state of play there for those that might have forgotten in the years since.
If the EU on the other hand plays hard ball (and barring some truly big debt crisis, war that matters, plague or humanitarian crisis it is the assumed path they would take, and said troubles would have to also be low enough to not be charity on the part of the UK) then when Labour turns around and presents that to a public vote (even if they could legally force it through then whether they should is a different matter) I doubt you will get everybody bar a few high tories and very old school labour saying yep.
Likewise campaigning on a "we are going back head held low" platform would be suicidal, or at best massively counterproductive if they wanted a comfortable majority within the country.
A middle path is unlikely to happen either -- The Republic of Ireland would probably block Schengen, I can't imagine getting rid of the pound is going to fly in the slightest and at that point you are almost back to original position.
Likewise if there is any movement on the canzuk thing and that comes with provisos against the EU (unlikely for Canada, rather more for Australia and NZ) then massive spanner in the works.
Has done nicely for revealing all politicians of all stripes to be self serving if not morons then hands tied stagnation enjoyers. I can only hope it sticks this time but not like ample evidence of that has existed for decades, and centuries if you dig, millennia if you read between the lines.
*if Labour or some successor party (or at least a new leader) gets back in next time (likely enough, though not as likely/landslide like as it was a few months ago), even with a clear majority and no troubles with coalitions then movements back towards the EU would have to be very calculated. If by some miracle the EU said "yeah that was a trip, welcome back in as it was before" (maybe with a pay us the dues you missed and/or minor sit it out/observer only until next cycle) then maybe there would be enough support. https://assets.publishing.service.g...502291/54284_EU_Series_No1_Web_Accessible.pdf for the general state of play there for those that might have forgotten in the years since.
If the EU on the other hand plays hard ball (and barring some truly big debt crisis, war that matters, plague or humanitarian crisis it is the assumed path they would take, and said troubles would have to also be low enough to not be charity on the part of the UK) then when Labour turns around and presents that to a public vote (even if they could legally force it through then whether they should is a different matter) I doubt you will get everybody bar a few high tories and very old school labour saying yep.
Likewise campaigning on a "we are going back head held low" platform would be suicidal, or at best massively counterproductive if they wanted a comfortable majority within the country.
A middle path is unlikely to happen either -- The Republic of Ireland would probably block Schengen, I can't imagine getting rid of the pound is going to fly in the slightest and at that point you are almost back to original position.
Likewise if there is any movement on the canzuk thing and that comes with provisos against the EU (unlikely for Canada, rather more for Australia and NZ) then massive spanner in the works.
Kate Hoey, one of the biggest cheerleaders for Brexit, was once asked to "name any reputable independent study that show us (the UK) better off if we leave (the EU)" and her answer to that very simple question tells you all you need to know 
Last edited by hooky1992,
None of this matters as long as the Brexit ImBrexile (swing) voters are coddled and treated as the most special voters ever. Seriously, I've never seen such a category that did so much harm be treated as if they were some sort of misguided heroes. Clearly democracy doesn't work if it can't even have the honesty to tell voters "you EFFED up". What a whole bunch of massive NPC snowflakes with fragile egos and none of the beauty and uniqueness of real snowflakes.
You seem to be enjoying a little rage out there so not sure what to pick at there which was aiming to be a point and what was just a symptom of your exasperation.
If you want to look at it more tactically then swing voters in this are not likely to be single issue voters. If you can suppress the red wall for little effort then play to it.
Equally what is harms and might it instead be a price willing to be paid for something more ephemeral? Likewise was it a strategical fuck up for them (concept itself never going to work) or a tactical one (assumed a vaguely competent negotiator would go in there with a plan)? If it was tactical (for them) then is this short term pain for long term gain?
If you want to look at it more tactically then swing voters in this are not likely to be single issue voters. If you can suppress the red wall for little effort then play to it.
Equally what is harms and might it instead be a price willing to be paid for something more ephemeral? Likewise was it a strategical fuck up for them (concept itself never going to work) or a tactical one (assumed a vaguely competent negotiator would go in there with a plan)? If it was tactical (for them) then is this short term pain for long term gain?
Media is generally massively pro-Europe so of course they're gonna stress the short term inconveniences of Brexit.
But History will tell that in the long term, Brexit was UK's best move of the century.
For the record, Europe is a neoliberal dictatorship hidden behind mock democracies. The only way nations can get some sovereignty back is by leaving this mess.
But History will tell that in the long term, Brexit was UK's best move of the century.
For the record, Europe is a neoliberal dictatorship hidden behind mock democracies. The only way nations can get some sovereignty back is by leaving this mess.
Last edited by Ligeia,
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