When will Mike Pence become the next US president?

[Captain_N]

Me too, rooting for Yang. He seems the best so far.

So how is Yang gonna pay for a UBI of $1000/m? Tax rate of 60%. You relise that all these social programs these dem leftists want will raise the tax rate to atleast 60% if not 50%. Since you seem to like yang, you must like his policies. Care to give 60% of your current pay check to the government so that the rest of us can sit at home and play video games all day?

 

[Xzi]

So how is Yang gonna pay for a UBI of $1000/m? Tax rate of 60%. You relise that all these social programs these dem leftists want will raise the tax rate to atleast 60% if not 50%. Since you seem to like yang, you must like his policies. Care to give 60% of your current pay check to the government so that the rest of us can sit at home and play video games all day?

A UBI is for the purpose of countering the effects of automation, so the answer seems simple: tax automation to pay for the UBI. It's the robots that will be losing most of their paycheck, but that check would've been going straight to the CEO anyway. A UBI won't be an absolute necessity until ~10% of normally human-occupied positions have been automated already.

 

[Captain_N]

A UBI is for the purpose of countering the effects of automation, so the answer seems simple: tax automation to pay for the UBI. It's the robots that will be losing most of their paycheck, but that check would've been going straight to the CEO anyway. A UBI won't be an absolute necessity until ~10% of normally human-occupied positions have been automated already.

Taxing the automation wont be enough most items are manufactured in China. Stores will get rid of their automation then there will be no automation to tax. What then. Tax automation in the states and those renaming manufacturing plants will move to china or some other country. A company is gonna pay their CEO regardless. They will just charge more for their goods. I bet if you owned a company that manufactured goods in the USA you would move that plant to china or would you rather just close up shop?

You seem to be against the capitalist nature of the USA which is fine, everyone is entitled to their opinion. that said, would you rather no one ever be able to own a company/business? Would you prefer if the government owned everything? what about landownership? The last time i checked, more innovations,wealth prosperity and discoveries have been accomplished done by free individuals they any government in all of recorded history. SO why go back to a system that limits the individual?


oh and for the topic, no way pence would be president during an election. Trump would have to be impeached.

 

[Xzi]

Taxing the automation wont be enough most items are manufactured in China. Tax automation in the states and those renaming manufacturing plants will move to china or some other country. If a company is gonna pay their CEO regardless. They will just charge more for their goods. I bet if you owned a company that manufactured goods in the USA you would move that plant to china or would you rather just close up shop?

Again, employment in the US is 80% service industry jobs. Jobs that can't be moved outside of the US because they're specifically for the purpose of servicing the needs of Americans. These are the jobs in danger of automation, not overseas manufacturing. A lot of those plants continue to use human labor because the minimum wage where they're located is a lot cheaper than the price of automation, but in the US the opposite is true, even when taking taxes into account. Automation is going to become irresistible to employers in the not-too-distant future.

 

[Darth Meteos]

the next president of the united states will be bernie sanders
that isn't a prediction, it's a spoiler

 

[Captain_N]

Again, employment in the US is 80% service industry jobs. Jobs that can't be moved outside of the US because they're specifically for the purpose of servicing the needs of Americans. These are the jobs in danger of automation, not overseas manufacturing. A lot of those plants continue to use human labor because the minimum wage where they're located is a lot cheaper than the price of automation, but in the US the opposite is true, even when taking taxes into account. Automation is going to become irresistible to employers in the not-too-distant future.

Yes their are a lot of service based jobs. I'm employed at one of them at a academic institution. You said the UBI would be paid by taxing automation. From what you just said, their does not seem to be enough automation to tax. Also, I was reading Yang's material on his own page. He wants to have the government create a new digital currency called "Digital Social Credit" you get paid on how well you do what the government says to do. That is not even close to what he is calling "Human Centered"
Thats government centered, not individual centered. Its the same as the new system in china that credits you on how good a citizen you are lol. Its a shame people keep falling for this "more government is better" crap. The dems give no other solution then bigger government.

There is no way Pence could compete with all this free government aid. Health care, UBI at $1000/m, free schools. I cant see pence winning anything.

Ref https://www.yang2020.com/policies/human-capitalism/

 

[SG854]

So how is Yang gonna pay for a UBI of $1000/m? Tax rate of 60%. You relise that all these social programs these dem leftists want will raise the tax rate to atleast 60% if not 50%. Since you seem to like yang, you must like his policies. Care to give 60% of your current pay check to the government so that the rest of us can sit at home and play video games all day?

Our society is changing. The current economic system may not work in the future. Automation is going to be a problem. And we need a solution and I’m open to ideas. Yang, while I’m still not 100% on board on UBI, has ideas that are good to debate.

What’s the best way, you think we should do, to solve the automation problem? Besides UBI is there something better you can come up with?

 

[Xzi]

Yes their are a lot of service based jobs. I'm employed at one of them at a academic institution. You said the UBI would be paid by taxing automation. From what you just said, their does not seem to be enough automation to tax.

Repeating myself again here, but this is future-tense. Once ~10% of human employees are replaced, the need for a UBI will become much more pressing. Still, it's best to be prepared for the inevitable, and that's why having the discussion now is a good thing.

Also, I was reading Yang's material on his own page. He wants to have the government create a new digital currency called "Digital Social Credit" you get paid on how well you do what the government says to do. That is not even close to what he is calling "Human Centered"
Thats government centered, not individual centered. Its the same as the new system in china that credits you on how good a citizen you are lol. Its a shame people keep falling for this "more government is better" crap. The dems give no other solution then bigger government.

There is no way Pence could compete with all this free government aid. Health care, UBI at $1000/m, free schools. I cant see pence winning anything.

Ref https://www.yang2020.com/policies/human-capitalism/

Yang isn't my favorite candidate at the moment, but this still seems a bit disingenuous. He's not suggesting you get paid based on government compliance, that's not how a UBI works.

If Pence has to run in place of Trump, then the reason he'll lose has nothing to do with whoever his opponent is. Just like Trump, Pence has no new ideas or policy platforms of his own, but he also doesn't have the WWE personality of Trump. So Pence appeals to basically nobody.

 

[SG854]

Repeating myself again here, but this is future-tense. Once ~10% of human employees are replaced, the need for a UBI will become much more pressing. Still, it's best to be prepared for the inevitable, and that's why having the discussion now is a good thing.


Yang isn't my favorite candidate at the moment, but this still seems a bit disingenuous. He's not suggesting you get paid based on government compliance, that's not how a UBI works.

If Pence has to run in place of Trump, then the reason he'll lose has nothing to do with whoever his opponent is. Just like Trump, Pence has no new ideas or policy platforms of his own, but he also doesn't have the WWE personality of Trump. So Pence appeals to basically nobody.

It’s estimated by 2030 that the shift will happen. And that’s not along way. And it will happen in increments over the years as we get closer to 2030 (automation replacing people), and not all at once at 2030. So it’s affecting us now, the inevitable is already happening.

 

[kuwanger]

I think this is worth watching. The reason we have an 80% service economic model is because we had a 80%+ agricultural economic model. What the future holds, I have no idea. It's simply not enough to argue a lot of service business jobs are threatened and replaced because that's literally been what's happening for decades. Is UBI part of the answer? Perhaps. I would say I heavily believe that "AI" replacing jobs is insanely overblown, the actual process of automation will take decades, and the truth is it's jobs $20/hour and over that are more threatened than $20/hour and under--robots cost a lot of money and take a lot of time to recoup that investment.

So, all of that out of the way, I can't see Pence, Trump, or really most politicians in a good position to really understand what the best thing is. I think Oliver is right that a large part of it should be retraining people for specific jobs, but it won't be at all a complete answer. I don't think wage insurance is viable. People having multiple careers is probably going to be more the norm. I don't think it's accurate that innovation is "speeding up", though. People just don't have a good perspective of how disruptive the past was. I definitely don't trust most politicians who say they're supporters of the free market, as to me that's usually more a statement of their cronyism to entrenched interests, not disruptive movement away from their campaign financiers.

 

[Nerdtendo]

Nothing's gonna happen to Trump. We might even see a second term. I don't think he's screwing up our country as bad as Clinton would have but that's beside the point.

 

[Viri]

Disclaimer: I have not read anything in this thread.

I think it's reasonable to guess that Trump will resign very soon before the end of his term so Pence has time to pardon him of all (federal) crimes. I doubt impeachment will go anywhere, considering the lengths his party will go to defend him.

Oh ho ho! Do you wanna make a bet on this one? We all remember how correct you were about the 2016 election!

PS - Just to spell out the creepy part: 'he “never eats alone with a woman other than his wife,” and that he doesn’t attend events serving alcohol unless she is with him as well.' -- The religious reasons Mike Pence won’t eat alone with women don’t add up

There are a lot of things to rag on Pence and hate him for. Not wanting to meet up and eat with women alone, without his wife present isn't one of them. The man just loves his wife a lot, doesn't want to make her feel insecure, and doesn't want to end up "metooed".

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i'm quit curious about ur signature, wtf is this?

Stuff mainland China doesn't like.

 

[Lacius]

Oh ho ho! Do you wanna make a bet on this one? We all remember how correct you were about the 2016 election!


There are a lot of things to rag on Pence and hate him for. Not wanting to meet up and eat with women alone, without his wife present isn't one of them. The man just loves his wife a lot, doesn't want to make her feel insecure, and doesn't want to end up "metooed".

As far as I remember, I didn't make any predictions except to say Clinton was more likely to win (she was) while acknowledging that Trump had a significant 30% or so chance of winning. It's why I talked about the presidential race so much and urged Bernie supporters to vote for Clinton instead of staying home. If the race hadn't been as close as it was, I probably would have cared less.

Regardless though of what I said or what the odds were, it was reasonable to say Clinton would probably win, and it's reasonable now to think Trump might resign sometime after losing the 2020 election but with enough time for Pence to issue some pardons.

Edit: I also acknowledged a good chance that Trump would lose the popular vote but win the Electoral College, but nobody listened.

 

[Kioku]

So how is Yang gonna pay for a UBI of $1000/m? Tax rate of 60%. You relise that all these social programs these dem leftists want will raise the tax rate to atleast 60% if not 50%. Since you seem to like yang, you must like his policies. Care to give 60% of your current pay check to the government so that the rest of us can sit at home and play video games all day?

You're an extremist, I take it? To grossly exaggerate a tax hike like it's legitimately the only option really speaks volumes to me. There are plenty of other areas they can pull funding from.

 

[Xzi]

it's reasonable now to think Trump might resign sometime after losing the 2020 election but with enough time for Pence to issue some pardons.

Can one actually resign the presidency after losing the election? Has this ever been done before?

 

[Captain_N]

Our society is changing. The current economic system may not work in the future. Automation is going to be a problem. And we need a solution and I’m open to ideas. Yang, while I’m still not 100% on board on UBI, has ideas that are good to debate.

What’s the best way, you think we should do, to solve the automation problem? Besides UBI is there something better you can come up with?

People are going to have to change their jobs and skills. No individual can get by with only one skill. People will have to know more then one skill in school. Trades can be taken up and require minimal schooling. Factory jobs were only the first ones to be replaced by automation. Service jobs will be taken when we have robots like in the movie I, robot. If the Ai does not become self aware and we get to Star trek levels,and we become a space faring civilization, money might not even be a thing. Its alittle hard to look 300 years into the future.
I have not found a single Dem running that does not think more government is the solution to the problems we face. It is a proven fact that when a society is free, it prospers. There is an insentive to become more, get rich, achieve something. In a place rulled by the government, like cuba and north korea, their is no incentive for self improvement. Look at cuba, its time locked in the 1960's and im not talking about the cars. the buildings are in a state of disrepair, the people know they can never do anything to become rich. They cant own land, cant own a business.

 

[Lacius]

Can one actually resign the presidency after losing the election? Has this ever been done before?

My interpretation is if one were to resign after losing an election but before the new president is sworn in, the current vice president would be sworn in as president in the interim.

My understanding is the president-elect cannot be sworn in early, unless Congress passes a new law allowing it, so that's the only option. However, hypothetically, what if a president resigned or died the day before the new president was sworn in? Would the current VP be sworn in as president for a day? Would the VP merely be acting president until the president-elect was sworn in? It's muddy, but if we take everything literally, I think my interpretation is correct, and we would have a president serving a term of one day.

Edit: In the case of Trump, he'd probably resign many weeks before the new president is sworn in. The above was just a thought experiment.

 

[kuwanger]

There are a lot of things to rag on Pence and hate him for. Not wanting to meet up and eat with women alone, without his wife present isn't one of them. The man just loves his wife a lot, doesn't want to make her feel insecure, and doesn't want to end up "metooed".

So, you're saying that Pence shouldn't go to a lunch with Pelosi to discuss some matters of Congress because he loves his wife and doesn't want her to feel insecure? Or that if he would do such a thing, there's a serious risk he would be #metoo'd even though he could be #metoo'd regardless by males or females alike because, obviously, people who go around sexually assaulting people can't be trusted to do a little thing like being actually truthful about not having private dinners with individuals?

Seriously, the argument is bogus. If he wants to spend time with his wife, that's great. If he almost always has lunch with her, that's awesome. But these hard rules about not eating dinner with a woman? Not going to social functions with alcohol unless his wife is present? Those things literally sound like someone who is so "tempted" by a possible misconstrued date with a woman or a little alcohol and no chaperone that they really shouldn't be trusted to *ever* be alone.

 

[Xzi]

People are going to have to change their jobs and skills. No individual can get by with only one skill. People will have to know more then one skill in school. Trades can be taken up and require minimal schooling.

There will be no jobs to change to, short of perhaps the arts and entertainment industry. Teaching AI to do anything else won't be that difficult.

My interpretation is if one were to resign after losing an election but before the new president is sworn in, the current vice president would be sworn in as president in the interim.

It makes sense, but I think such a move would be highly contentious. Another nebulous constitutional crisis with no clear precedent to guide us through.

 

[Lacius]

There will be no jobs to change to, short of perhaps the arts and entertainment industry. Teaching AI to do anything else won't be that difficult.


It makes sense, but I think such a move would be highly contentious. Another nebulous constitutional crisis with no clear precedent to guide us through.

While we don't have precedent of it happening after a lost election, we do have precedent of a criminal president resigning to be pardoned by the VP-turned-president.